Russian refiners have raised diesel output for October after Moscow issued export quotas under the Kremlin’s supply agreement with the United States, two industry sources told Reuters on Monday. Daily production fell to about 160,000 metric tons in the first half of the month, from 175,000 tons in September. It began climbing toward 180,000 tons a day once the quotas arrived in mid-October.
Russia’s domestic diesel consumption typically drops to about 140,000 tons a day in October, after the grain harvest and the summer driving season end, leaving at least 40,000 tons a day, more than 1 million tons a month, available for export, according to the sources. Between 200,000 and 300,000 tons of that is likely to go to neighbouring countries under intergovernmental agreements.
Moscow is expected to keep its diesel export ban, which took effect in August, in place and to use quotas to control how much leaves the country.
U.S. President Donald Trump said on October 9 that Russia would ship more than 300,000 tons of diesel immediately, followed by 500,000 tons in November and 1 million tons after that. A further 3 million tons would depend on the condition of Russia’s refineries. Washington has temporarily lifted sanctions on Russian fuel to allow the trade, with a six-month Treasury waiver issued the same day.
The waiver goes beyond pre-election price relief, and is seen by some analysts as a first step toward easing sanctions on Russian energy and pulling Moscow’s supplies back toward the West and away from China, which has come to rely on Russia since the Hormuz closure cut off Gulf oil.
The first cargo on the Malta-flagged Agioi Fanendes left Primorsk on October 23 with about 40,000 tons of ultra-low sulfur diesel and is due in New York on November 7, four days after the midterm elections. The average U.S. diesel price stood at $6.32 a gallon that day, up from $3.63 a year earlier.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said shipments to the United States would continue regularly. At least two other tankers carrying Russian diesel have signaled destinations in Turkey and Brazil.
Analysts doubt the volumes will move the market. Standard Chartered has warned that Russia will struggle to raise diesel output in the near term because Ukrainian drone strikes have damaged its refineries, which will take months to repair. The bank adds that barrels redirected to U.S. buyers come out of supply to Russia’s existing customers. Kyiv resumed refinery strikes on October 15 after a three-day pause, which puts the October recovery at risk.
By Charles Kennedy for Oilprice.com
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