Russia’s largest Black Sea oil export terminal has effectively gone offline just days after drone attacks shut down the neighboring Caspian Pipeline Consortium terminal, tightening another artery that moves crude onto the global market.
The Sheskharis terminal at Novorossiysk hasn’t loaded a crude tanker since July 21, according to Bloomberg.
Sheskharis exported an average of about 650,000 barrels per day during the first half of the year. Losing those barrels, even temporarily, comes on top of the disruption at CPC, which normally handles more than 80% of Kazakhstan’s crude exports and roughly 2% of global oil supply.
The two terminals sit only a few miles apart. Together they form one of the most important oil export hubs on the Black Sea.
The disruption is already showing up upstream. Kazakhstan cut oil production this week after CPC suspended tanker loadings, with output at Chevron’s giant Tengiz field reportedly falling by more than half as storage filled and producers were forced to reduce pipeline flows. If Sheskharis remains idle, another major export outlet disappears from an already stressed market.
Ukraine has expanded drone attacks beyond refineries and storage facilities to commercial shipping and export infrastructure in the Black Sea and Sea of Azov. Russia has responded by warning vessels operating in its Black Sea economic zone that navigation is no longer considered safe because of the threat from air and sea drones.
The market is running out of places to absorb supply disruptions.
Brent crude climbed above $100 this week as renewed fighting around the Strait of Hormuz and Houthi attacks in the Red Sea threatened Gulf exports. Now the Black Sea is becoming another source of lost barrels instead of replacement supply.
Unlike earlier in the year, inventories are no longer providing much of a cushion. Strategic reserves have been drawn down for months, commercial stocks have fallen sharply, and refining margins remain elevated as diesel supplies tighten.
The oil market entered the summer worried about oversupply. It is ending July watching another export terminal fall silent.
By Julianne Geiger for Oilprice.com
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