Crude oil exports from the Middle East have risen to 12.8 million barrels daily this month, preliminary data from Kpler cited by Reuters has suggested.
The rebound was led by Saudi Arabia, which redirected oil flows from the west to the east, where it loads the crude on tankers in the Gulf of Oman via ship-to-ship transfer.
According to the Kpler data, Saudi Arabia has been exporting crude at a daily rate of 5.4 million barrels this month, with exports from the Ras Tanura port on the Persian Gulf flowing at a rate of 3.6 million barrels daily. This is pretty much on par with the country’s daily average for 2025, according to Kpler.
“The ramp-up from the Mideast Gulf is a consequence of the pipeline outage, but it likely also signals a greater confidence in using the Strait of Hormuz given rising traffic,” Kpler’s director of commodity research, Matt Smith, said Friday, as quoted by CNBC.
Other Gulf producers appear to also be ramping up exports, with Kpler reporting a daily total of 13.2 million barrels for last Wednesday. This is certainly an improvement, but it remains lower than the average daily oil flow rate of around 17 million barrels before the war began.
Meanwhile, tanker trackers continue to report weaker than usual traffic in the Strait of Hormuz. Last week, the data showed tanker movements in the waterway dropping below 10, from a 10-day moving average of 18. However, this is only the official tanker count. Some vessels are moving in so-called dark mode to avoid detection and a potential attack.
Speaking of attacks, this weekend Iranian media reported explosions could be heard in Hormuz, with Al Jazeera writing that the reports suggested missiles were being fired at vessels in the waterway. Some analysts expect strikes will become more frequent after the U.S. rejected Iran’s peace proposal.
By Irina Slav for Oilprice.com
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