Saudi Arabia is expected to raise the official selling price (OSP) of Arab Light crude to Asia for September-loading cargoes, according to trading sources cited Monday by Reuters. The anticipated hike would mark a second consecutive monthly increase as regional refining margins strengthen and domestic crude burn limits outbound volumes.
Forecasts suggest Arab Light’s premium may rise by $0.90 to $1.05 per barrel over the Oman/Dubai average, placing the final differential in the range of $3.10 to $3.25, trading desks told Reuters. Other grades, including Arab Extra Light, Medium, and Heavy, are also expected to increase by $0.80 to $0.95 per barrel.
Earlier this month, Aramco raised its August-loading Arab Light OSP to Asia by $0.70, lifting the premium to $2.20, which represents the highest level since March. That decision followed steady margins across Asian refining hubs and tightening Russian competition, particularly on the Pacific side.
Despite nominal output increases from OPEC+ for Q3, Saudi export volumes have remained flat as more barrels are absorbed by domestic utilities during peak power demand. This seasonal dynamic continues to restrict seaborne flows available to Asia, even as buyer demand holds firm.
No official announcement has yet been issued by Aramco regarding September pricing.
Aramco’s pricing formula incorporates the Dubai market structure, regional freight costs, and direct consultations with refiners in core import markets such as China, India, Japan, and South Korea. Final prices are usually announced during the first five days of each month.
The OPEC+ Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) is scheduled to convene later Monday, with the full ministerial meeting set for August 3. Analysts view it as unlikely that the cartel will alter existing plans to raise oil output when it meets on Monday, noting its desire to recover market share amid higher summer demand.
By Michael Kern for Oilprice.com
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