Shell expects its adjusted earnings in marketing and oil trading for the first quarter to be “significantly higher”, the UK-based supermajor said in a trading update on Wednesday in a preview for the Q1 earnings.
Shell, which will publish its first-quarter results on May 7, sees marketing adjusted earnings significantly higher than a year ago, and the trading and optimization result to be significantly higher than for the fourth quarter of 2025.
The extreme volatility and the market chaos resulting from the war in the Middle East at the end of the first quarter was certainly a factor in the expected higher earnings from oil trading and products marketing.
The damage to the Qatari LNG infrastructure, where Shell has stakes in production, will also be reflected in the first-quarter results of the supermajor.
Shell expects its natural gas production to be lower than in the fourth quarter, at 880,000-920,000 barrels oil equivalent per day (boe/d), down from 948,000 boe/d, reflecting “the impact of the Middle East conflict on Qatari volumes.”
LNG liquefaction volumes are seen at 7.6 – 8.0 million tons, compared to 7.8 MT in the fourth quarter, to reflect “the ramp-up of LNG Canada, offset by Australia weather constraints and Qatar LNG outages.”
Last month, following the Iranian attacks on the Ras Laffan complex, Shell updated the market on the impact of the Middle East conflict on its activities in the region.
Shell confirmed no damage to train one and an initial assessment of around one year for full repair of train two at the Pearl GTL (Gas-to-Liquids) facility.
In LNG, Shell has a 30% interest in QatarEnergy LNG N(4) equating to 2.4 MTPA of equity production. This plant, an integrated onshore facility to process gas from Qatar’s North Field, was not impacted during the attacks on March 18, 2026, Shell said.
The supermajor, which it the world’s top LNG trader by volumes, also has LNG supply contracts from other QatarEnergy LNG facilities.
As early as March 2, QatarEnergy shut in production across all LNG facilities and subsequently declared force majeure.
By Michael Kern for Oilprice.com
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