Surging gas demand in South and Southeast Asia will push global LNG demand up by 65% by 2050 from 2025 levels, although growth this year has been stalled by the Strait of Hormuz crisis, Shell, the world’s biggest LNG trader, said in its annual LNG Outlook 2026 published on Tuesday.
Last year, 422 million tons of LNG were traded globally. Expectations early this year, including by Shell, were that trade will jump in 2026.
However, the Middle East conflict that shut in a fifth of the world’s monthly LNG supply pushed up spot LNG prices to multi-year highs and deterred many potential buyers in Asia, the UK-based supermajor said.
LNG trade this year has a chance to be flat compared to 2025 and not drop off if LNG flows through the Strait of Hormuz return to normal this summer, Shell noted.
But supply could contract if the reopening is slowed by additional fits and starts in Hormuz traffic such as the ones seen over the past week.
At any rate, Qatar, the biggest Middle Eastern LNG exporter and the world’s second-largest after the U.S., is already lining up tankers to ship cargoes out of the Persian Gulf and through the Strait of Hormuz.
“Within a few weeks, production will come back to normal, except the damaged facility,” Qatar’s Prime Minister, Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman al-Thani told the Financial Times earlier this month.
This hinges on normalization of the conditions of transit through the Strait of Hormuz.
“The conflict created a system-wide shock with disruption cascading across all segments of the economy, but the LNG industry has proved resilient and able to adapt to changing market conditions,” Cederic Cremers, President of Integrated Gas at Shell, commented in the supermajor’s report.
“While more investment in both supply and demand infrastructure is needed, the long-term outlook remains strong and LNG will continue to be a stabilising force in the global energy system,” the executive said.
Shell sees global LNG demand increasing to nearly 700 million tons annually by 2050, up by around 65% from the 2025 levels of 422 million tons.
By Michael Kern for Oilprice.com
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