Shell, Total Flag Uncertainty in Timing of New Global LNG Supply

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LONDON, Oct 30 (Reuters) – Shell (SHEL.L) and TotalEnergies (TTEF.PA), the world’s two largest listed LNG traders, said on Thursday that the exact timing of new LNG projects starting up around the world is in flux, which could create uncertainty about long-term supply.

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New LNG projects are seeing delays as they face rising construction costs due to tariffs, with U.S. LNG exporters seeking to renegotiate deals to cover those costs, while some big LNG projects are being delayed due to security concerns, for example in Mozambique.

“Supply growth on the horizon and those timings are uncertain. You’ve seen those move quite a few times between years,” Shell CFO Sinead Gorman told reporters on a media call after Shell beat third-quarter earnings expectations.

HIGHER FINANCING, CONSTRUCTION COSTS

The International Energy Agency expects around 184 million metric tons per year of added global net supply of LNG by 2030.

“There are a lot of announcements, but all these projects will have to find financing, and good financing, not (expensive), otherwise you destroy the value,” Pouyanne told analysts on a results call.

Pouyanne said NextDecade was able to take a final investment decision on Rio Grande LNG’s Train 4 thanks to a competitive 6.5% financing rate, but that Sempra had postponed Cameron LNG’s fourth processing plant due to too-high capital expenditure costs and Total’s Papua LNG is being revised to lower costs.

SHELL SEES BALANCED LNG MARKET IN 2026

Shell CEO Wael Sawan told a conference call on Thursday he sees a balanced LNG market in 2026. Longer-term, he said, Shell was bullish on LNG prices.

“We’re looking at new supply projects and what that means for the overall complex in the latter parts of the decade. We continue to see positive signals on transportation,” Sawan said, pointing to marine and trucking demand for LNG.

Shell expects global demand for LNG to grow by 60% by 2040 and wants to boost its LNG sales by 4% to 5% a year throughout this decade. It sold more than 65 million metric tons last year.

TotalEnergies (TTEF.PA), which has sold around 30 million metric tons of LNG this year so far, said on Thursday it expected European gas prices to stay at around $11 per MMTBU throughout the winter.

Talking about the short term, the finance chief of Norway’s Equinor (EQNR.OL), which overtook Russia as Europe’s biggest gas supplier in 2022, said on Wednesday that Europe’s gas market was tighter than many might think this winter.

Equinor nevertheless lowered its long-term gas price outlook to $8 per MMBTU in 2030 from around $9 per MMBTU, given its expectations for new volumes coming to market.

Reporting by Shadia Nasralla; Editing by Susan Fenton and Jan Harvey