The United States is expected to add more than 7 GW of wind installations in 2025, a 36% increase over the previous year, and the five-year outlook remains unchanged quarter-over-quarter from previous forecast, according to the “U.S. Wind Energy Monitor” report released by Wood Mackenzie and the American Clean Power Association (ACP).
Amid a challenging market environment, the report shows that the United States is on track to add 46 GW of new wind capacity from 2025 to 2029, with total projected volumes unchanged quarter-on-quarter from previous forecasts. However, timing has shifted, as 2026 and 2027 will deliver significant gains, at 10.7 GW and 12.7 GW, respectively, as more assets advance through the development pipeline.
While Q3 installations came in 23% below forecast at 932 MW, the market has shown progress with 3.8 GW queued for Q4 2025 — representing 52% of the year’s total expected capacity. This back-loaded installation pattern is consistent with typical project-commissioning timelines.
U.S. turbine order intake has rebounded to pre-One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) levels quarter-over-quarter, supported by 2+ GW of firm commitments in Q3, the biggest intake in the region in the last nine months and a 79% quarter-over-quarter increase. However, true visibility remains limited as OEMs increasingly withhold project details and much qualifying “start-of-construction” activity occurs through off-site component manufacturing.
The market will then see a noticeable drop off, as 2029 weakens meaningfully quarter-over-quarter following project cancellations and inactive designations for late-decade capacity, driven by permitting and broader development challenges.
“The U.S. power market is facing mounting strain after a decade of flat demand, with utilities committing to 160 GW of large-load additions. This represents a significant opportunity for wind energy, which benefits from strengthened economic fundamentals and a compelling business case driven by its competitively low LCOE,” said Leila Garcia da Fonseca, director of research at Wood Mackenzie. “However, turbine costs remain elevated due to tariffs and mid-term wind growth will depend on resolving permitting and policy uncertainty.”
Power demand growth through 2029 is expected to average around 3% compared to just 0.7% over the previous decade, with data centers accounting for approximately 59 GW of the 90 GW total peak demand growth. This surge in baseload demand positions wind as a natural fit to meet rising power needs.
Onshore activity
The five-year capacity outlook remains unchanged at 39.8 GW of added capacity quarter-over-quarter. The 2025-2027 pipeline is fully committed with all projects having turbine orders in place. More than 60% of the three-year capacity outlook has been commissioned or is under construction.
Activity is led by western states, such as Wyoming, New Mexico and others, that will account for 34% of activity in this time period. Major projects driving the outlook include Pattern’s 3.5-GW SunZia project in New Mexico, which will position the developer as 2026’s top installer, and Invenergy’s 998-MW Towner Energy Center in Colorado, the largest single project expected in 2027.
The market continues expanding geographically, with Arkansas bringing its first utility-scale onshore wind project online through Cordelio’s Crossover Wind.
The repowering market remains strong, as Wood Mackenzie projects that 18 projects will drive 2.5 GW of capacity additions in the next three years.
Offshore activity
Wood Mackenzie expects the offshore installation pace to slow in Q4 2025 due to harsh winter weather conditions, pushing remaining capacity into 2026. Despite these near-term adjustments, Vineyard Wind has demonstrated strong execution, connecting 15 turbines in Q3 and delivering 200 GWh through nine months.
“U.S. offshore wind shows diverging momentum,” said Garcia Da Fonseca. “Projects under construction with COD estimated for 2026 continue to hit key milestones, but post-2027 developments face potential delays amid constrained wind turbine installation vessel capacity, driving delays and contract terminations.”
The offshore sector is also experiencing significant financial pressure.
Tariffs drive up wind turbine costs
The report highlights that uncertainty around tariffs is a threat to projections. Wood Mackenzie projects that tariffs will drive up turbine costs in 2026, before moderating in subsequent years. In total, U.S. onshore wind capex is projected to increase by 5% through 2029.
“U.S. wind turbine pricing is experiencing unprecedented uncertainty as conflicting market and regulatory forces interact,” said Garcia Da Fonseca. “Domestic manufacturing overcapacity relative to permitted project volumes, particularly after 2028, would normally place downward pressure on prices. Despite this, onshore wind costs are expected to continue rising due to tariff exposure on raw material inputs and subcomponents.”
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