Climate variability and long-term climate change are increasingly influencing the performance and reliability of renewable energy systems worldwide, according to the WMO–IRENA 2024 Year in Review: Climate-driven Global Renewable Energy Resources and Energy Demand, released by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA).
Now in its third edition, the report finds that 2024—the warmest year on record, with global temperatures about 1.55°C above pre-industrial levels—brought significant regional shifts in solar, wind, and hydropower potential. At the same time, climate-driven global energy demand rose by 4% compared with the 1991–2020 average. These changes are occurring as global renewable energy capacity surpasses 4,400 gigawatts, intensifying the interaction between climate conditions and energy systems at an unprecedented scale.
The findings underscore the urgent need to integrate climate intelligence into energy planning as countries work to meet the COP28 UAE Consensus, which calls for tripling renewable energy capacity and doubling energy efficiency by 2030. “Climate variability is no longer a background consideration for the energy sector—it is a defining operational factor,” said Prof. Celeste Saulo, WMO Secretary-General.
“As renewable energy systems expand, their performance and reliability are increasingly shaped by heat extremes, rainfall variability, and shifting atmospheric patterns. Integrating climate information and early warnings into energy planning is essential to build power systems that are both clean and resilient.”
The report highlights how climate extremes are amplifying stress on energy systems. Using four core indicators—wind and solar capacity factors, a precipitation-based hydropower proxy, and a temperature-derived energy demand proxy—the analysis shows that residual El Niño conditions, record ocean heat, and long-term warming created strong regional contrasts in energy outcomes in 2024.
In Southern Africa, wind capacity factors increased by 8–16% and solar by 2–6%, while hydropower remained below average for the third consecutive year and energy demand reached record highs. South Asia experienced deficits in wind and solar output alongside sharply rising cooling demand, with monthly anomalies reaching around 16% in October. East Africa saw positive hydropower anomalies due to above-average rainfall, whereas parts of South America faced reduced hydropower output and elevated demand under hot and dry conditions.
For the first time, the report also evaluates the usefulness of seasonal climate forecasts for energy planning. Results show that forecasts—particularly from the ECMWF system—can successfully anticipate regional anomalies in solar energy potential and electricity demand months in advance. For example, forecasts issued in early summer 2024 accurately predicted unusually high energy demand and below-average solar performance across large parts of Africa.
These advances demonstrate how early warning information on heatwaves, rainfall shifts, and large-scale climate drivers such as ENSO can support load management, reservoir operations, infrastructure scheduling, and cross-border electricity trade, reducing volatility in both supply and demand.
The report also highlights implications for policy, investment, and national climate commitments. As countries prepare their Long-Term Low Emission Development Strategies (LT-LEDS), it recommends strengthening climate-informed energy planning through improved data and observational systems, expanded regional climate services and early warning systems, integration of seasonal forecasts into decision-making, and the design of climate-resilient energy targets aligned with the Paris Agreement and COP28 Global Stocktake.
“The global energy transition is unstoppable but must be grounded in climate reality,” said Francesco La Camera, Director-General of IRENA. “This report shows that understanding climate variability is critical for making smart investment decisions, strengthening energy security, and ensuring that rapidly growing renewable capacity delivers reliable power under real-world climate conditions.”
By bridging meteorological science and energy planning, the WMO–IRENA 2024 Year in Review provides actionable insights to support resilient, reliable, and equitable clean energy systems as renewable deployment accelerates worldwide.
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