Around 30 percent of global oil reserves might be consolidated under U.S. influence.
That’s what J.P. Morgan analysts, including the company’s head of global commodities strategy Natasha Kaneva, stated in a J.P. Morgan research note sent to Rigzone by Kaneva this week.
“Combined oil reserves from Venezuela, Guyana, and the U.S. could give the U.S. about 30 percent of global oil reserves if consolidated under its influence,” the analysts said in the note.
The J.P. Morgan analysts highlighted in the research note that Venezuela holds the world’s largest oil reserves, “particularly heavy crude needed by U.S. refiners”.
“With 303 billion barrels of proven crude oil reserves, Venezuela represents nearly 20 percent of global reserves as of 2024 – more than any other country,” they pointed out.
“If Guyana’s rapidly expanding discoveries are considered alongside U.S. conventional and unconventional reserves, the combined total could position the U.S. as a leading holder of global oil reserves, potentially accounting for about 30 percent of the world’s total if these figures are consolidated under U.S. influence,” they added.
The analysts stated in the note that this would mark a notable shift in global energy dynamics.
“With greater access to and influence over a substantial portion of global reserves, the U.S. could potentially exert more control over oil market trends, helping to stabilize prices and keep them within historically lower ranges,” the analysts said.
“This increased leverage would not only enhance U.S. energy security but could also reshape the balance of power in international energy markets,” they added.
In the note, the J.P. Morgan analysts revealed that they continue to maintain their view that “a regime change in Venezuela would immediately represent one of the largest upside risks to the global oil supply outlook for 2026-2027 and beyond”.
“With a political transition, Venezuela could raise oil production to 1.3-1.4 million barrels per day within two years and potentially reach 2.5 million barrels per day over the next decade, up from about 0.8 million barrels per day currently,” they analysts said in the research note.
Rigzone has contacted the Venezuelan embassy in the UK, the White House, Guyana’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation, and the American Petroleum Institute (API) for comment on the J.P. Morgan research note. At the time of writing, none of the above have responded to Rigzone.
A page on Venezuela on the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) website, which was last updated in February 2024, stated that the country had the world’s largest proven crude oil reserves in 2023, “with approximately 303 billion barrels”. The page noted that this accounted for approximately 17 percent of global reserves.
“Despite the sizeable reserves, Venezuela produced 0.8 percent of total global crude oil in 2023,” the EIA page highlighted.
According to the Energy Institute’s (EI) latest statistical review of world energy, which was released back in June 2025, the U.S. was the world’s largest producer of crude oil and condensate in 2024, with 13.194 million barrels per day. This marked 15.9 percent of global crude oil and condensate output that year, the review showed.
Venezuela produced 914,000 barrels per day of crude oil and condensate in 2024, or 1.1 percent of the world’s share, and Guyana produced 616,000 barrels per day, or 0.7 percent of the world’s share, the EI review highlighted.
In a news conference held on January 3 in Mar-a-Lago, Florida, which was streamed by Sky News, U.S. President Donald Trump stated, “late last night and early today, at my direction, ”.
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