According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) latest short term energy outlook (STEO), which was released earlier this month, the U.S. will produce 13.45 million barrels of crude oil, including lease condensate, per day in the second quarter of this year.
Of this total, 11.23 million barrels will come from Lower 48 states, excluding the Gulf of America, the EIA showed in its STEO. The Federal Gulf of America will produce 1.81 million barrels per day of the total and Alaska will produce 0.41 million barrels per day, the STEO pointed out.
The EIA’s latest STEO highlighted that U.S. crude oil production averaged 13.35 million barrels per day in the first quarter of this year. The Lower 48 states, excluding the Gulf of America, provided 11.09 million barrels per day of that total, the Federal Gulf of America provided 1.82 million barrels per day, and Alaska provided 0.44 million barrels per day, the STEO showed.
In the second quarter of 2024, the U.S. produced 13.23 million barrels of crude oil per day, with 11.01 million barrels coming from the Lower 48 states, excluding the Gulf of America, 1.80 million barrels coming from the Federal Gulf of America, and 0.42 million barrels coming from Alaska, the EIA’s April STEO outlined.
In the first quarter of last year, U.S. crude oil production averaged 12.94 million barrels per day, according to the EIA’s latest STEO, which pointed out that the Lower 48 states, excluding the Gulf of America, provided 10.73 million barrels of that total, the Federal Gulf of America provided 1.78 million barrels, and Alaska provided 0.43 million barrels.
Future Projections
The EIA’s April STEO projects that U.S. crude oil production will average 13.51 million barrels per day overall in 2025 and 13.56 million barrels per day overall in 2026.
This STEO forecasts that output will come in at 13.56 million barrels per day in the third quarter of this year, 13.66 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter, 13.67 million barrels per day in the first quarter of next year, 13.64 million barrels per day in the second quarter, 13.46 million barrels per day in the third quarter, and 13.48 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter of 2026.
The EIA expects the Lower 48 states, excluding the Gulf of America, to provide 11.28 million barrels per day of the 2025 total and 11.29 million barrels per day of the 2026 total, the STEO shows. The Federal Gulf of America is expected to provide 1.80 million barrels of the 2025 total and 1.83 million barrels of the 2026 total, and Alaska is expected to provide 0.42 million barrels of this year’s total and 0.44 million barrels of next year’s total, the STEO outlined.
In its latest STEO, the EIA highlighted that U.S. crude oil production averaged 13.21 million barrels per day in 2024. Lower 48 states, excluding the Gulf of America, contributed 11.02 million barrels to this total, the Federal Gulf of America contributed 1.77 million barrels, and Alaska contributed 0.42 million barrels, the April STEO showed.
USA vs Rest of World
According to the EIA’s latest STEO, the world’s total crude oil production will come in at 76.52 million barrels per day in the second quarter of this year.
The EIA’s projected U.S. second quarter crude oil production figure of 13.45 million barrels per day is 17.57 percent of the EIA’s total projected crude oil production figure for the second quarter of 2025.
In its April STEO, the EIA projects that the globe will produce 77.08 million barrels of crude oil per day in 2025 and 77.82 million barrels per day in 2026. The STEO highlighted that total world crude oil production averaged 76.23 million barrels per day last year.
The EIA’s projected 2025 U.S. crude oil production figure of 13.51 million barrels per day is 17.52 percent of its total projected crude oil output figure for this year. Its projected 2026 U.S. crude oil production figure of 13.56 million barrels per day is 17.42 percent of its total projected crude oil output figure for next year.
A quarterly breakdown included in the EIA’s latest STEO showed that the EIA sees global crude oil production averaging 77.08 million barrels per day in the third quarter of this year, 77.75 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter, 77.87 million barrels per day in the first quarter of next year, 77.59 million barrels per day in the second quarter, 77.70 million barrels per day in the third quarter, and 78.10 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter of next year.
13 Million Barrels Per Day or More
A data page on the EIA website showing monthly U.S. field production of crude oil, which was last updated on March 31, 2025, and which includes data from January 1920 to January 2025, showed that monthly U.S. field production of crude oil has averaged 13 million barrels per day or more on 17 occasions.
Five of those were in 2023, 11 were in 2024, and one was in 2025, according to the data page, which revealed that the highest monthly U.S. field production of crude oil figure was seen in December 2024, at 13.451 million barrels per day.
A data page on the EIA site showing annual U.S. field production of crude oil, which was also last updated on March 31, 2025, and which includes data from 1859 to 2024, showed that annual U.S. field production of crude oil averaged 13.209 million barrels per day in 2024. Prior to this, annual U.S. field production of crude oil had never averaged 13 million barrels per day or more, the data revealed. The closest it came to an annual average of 13 million barrels per day was in 2023, at 12.935 million barrels per day, the data showed.
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