India is fast cementing its status as the world’s top engine of oil demand growth—overtaking China earlier than expected and showing no signs of slowing down.
According to OPEC’s latest Monthly Oil Market Report, India’s oil demand is projected to grow by 3.4% in 2025 to 5.74 million barrels per day (bpd), and then rise another 4.3% in 2026 to 5.99 million bpd. That’s more than double China’s projected growth rates of 1.5% and 1.25% for those years, respectively.
The jump in Indian oil consumption is being driven by the country’s strong economic momentum—fueled by consumer spending, manufacturing expansion, and continued government support. Diesel remains the biggest contributor to this demand surge, backed by rapid road expansion and robust growth in transport and petrochemical sectors. Bitumen demand is also expected to rise sharply, thanks to infrastructure projects across the country.
While the U.S. will still top the global oil consumption charts with 20.5 million bpd in 2025, India’s pace of growth is unmatched among major economies. The EIA previously projected that India would account for 25% of global oil demand growth this year—an impressive shift from the years when China dominated headlines.
India’s actual consumption data also paints a bullish picture. In January 2025, fuel demand was up 3.2% year-on-year. Diesel use rose 4.2%, while gasoline jumped 6.7% from the same month in 2024. Although consumption dipped slightly from December’s holiday-driven peak, it remains on a strong upward trend.
The record-setting 5.4 million bpd crude import figure in March underscores India’s rising energy appetite. Russia maintained the top spot as a supplier, providing 36% of India’s crude, followed by Iraq and Saudi Arabia.
With this growth trajectory and energy-hungry economy, India has firmly taken the lead as the world’s fastest-growing oil demand center—well ahead of China, and likely to stay there.
By Charles Kennedy for Oilprice.com
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