The decline in 2026 production to 13.28 million bpd would be the first drop in output since 2021 for the world’s largest producer, the EIA data showed. Prices for the international benchmark Brent will average $51 per barrel next year, down from the EIA’s previous forecast of $58 per barrel, after the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its members decided to accelerate the pace of production increases.
“Low oil prices in early 2026 will lead to a reduction in supply by both OPEC+ and some non-OPEC producers, which we expect will help moderate inventory builds later in 2026,” the EIA said.
In last month’s report, the EIA had projected U.S. crude output at 13.37 million bpd in both 2025 and 2026. The United States produced 13.21 million bpd in 2024. U.S. producers this year have had to navigate President Donald Trump’s on-again, off-again tariffs that have sparked economic uncertainty, rising supply quotas from OPEC+, and ongoing conflicts in the Middle East and in Ukraine.
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Lower crude prices are expected to push down retail prices for petroleum products, the EIA said, adding it expects retail gasoline prices in the U.S. to average less than $2.90 per gallon next year, about 20 cents per gallon less than this year.
U.S. distillate fuel inventories will end 2025 at the lowest end-of-year level since 2000, after decreasing 14% over the course of the year due to increased exports and demand, the EIA said. Lower U.S. refinery capacity and continued strong export demand will keep inventory levels lower, with distillate inventories remaining relatively flat in 2026, the agency added.
U.S. oil demand will increase to 20.4 million bpd in 2025, in line with previous forecasts, the EIA said. In 2026, oil demand will rise to 20.5 million bpd, versus a previous estimate of 20.4 million bpd.
(Reporting by Stephanie Kelly; Editing by Mark Porter and Deepa Babington)
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