Nigeria will open its 2025 oil licensing round on December 1, as the Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) steps deeper into the role once dominated by the state oil company. The move signals President Bola Tinubu’s intent to boost output, court investors, and drive the economy toward his $1-trillion target.
Announcing the round in London, NUPRC chief Gbenga Komolafe said it marks a fresh phase under the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA). He told executives from oil majors and banks that financing remains the biggest barrier to growth, but the commission is now acting as a “business enabler,” linking investors, lenders, and operators to help lift output by one million barrels per day.
The launch follows months of structural reform that effectively shifted contract oversight from the Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) to the regulator—a major power play that could reshape how upstream deals are managed. The government is betting that tighter control and transparency will draw long-term capital back to a sector crippled by underinvestment and theft.
Komolafe pointed to early signs of recovery: 46 field development plans approved this year, an active rig count of more than 60, and crude output climbing to 1.71 million barrels per day, peaking at 1.83 million. He said recent final investment decisions—including $5 billion for Bonga North, $500 million for Ubeta Gas, and $2 billion for Shell’s HI Gas project—reflect renewed confidence.
Parliament leaders used the forum to reassure investors that the Petroleum Industry Act is here to stay. Whether that promise restores confidence after years of moving goalposts is another question entirely.
If it succeeds, Nigeria could move closer to its long-stated goal of restoring production above 2 million barrels per day—and giving its regulator real teeth in the process.
By Julianne Geiger for Oilprice.com
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