The cost of green ammonia produced in China is coming down, driven by flagship projects such as Envision Energy’s 320,000 tonnes-per-year green hydrogen and ammonia facility near Chefing City, with the first exports now hitting the market.
The implications of this shifting dynamic were explored in a panel session at Wood Mackenzie’s Hydrogen Conference 2025 in London last week, with Frunk Yu, Senior Vice-President of Envision Energy, among the speakers.
Wood Mackenzie analyst Tiantian Zhao, a research analyst in hydrogen and derivatives, framed the shifting dynamic in ammonia at the top of the session. She noted how the global low-carbon ammonia cost curve was coming down, to the extent that green ammonia is getting towards parity with blue ammonia projects. In the years ahead, she noted, more capacity would be added and costs should fall even further.
That shift raises a question about whether ammonia molecules will be the primary export from China related to this activity, or whether electrolyser installations in overseas markets could be a primary play.
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