Nigeria’s struggles to pump to its OPEC+ quota over the past year have resulted in a loss of $1.31 billion gross revenue for the biggest African oil producer, according to data calculated by Business Insider Africa.
The cumulative underproduction for Nigeria between January 2025 and January 2026 is estimated at about 18.12 million barrels. Multiplied by the official average price of the country’s flagship Bonny Light crude, $72.08 per barrel, the lost revenues for OPEC’s top African producer amount to $1.31 billion, Business Insider’s estimates showed.
Nigeria has been struggling to keep up with its production quota under the OPEC+ deal for years.
Last year, the country exceeded its OPEC+ quota only in January, June, and July. Production was below the OPEC+ ceiling in all other months of 2025.
The steepest deficit occurred in September 2025, when production dropped to 1.39 million barrels per day, or some 110,000 bpd below the OPEC+ quota, Business Insider’s analysis showed.
Nigeria also missed its own oil production targets last year, but it plans an output boost through 2030.
The African country booked average daily crude oil production of around 1.5 million barrels for 2025, which was 500,000 bpd lower than the government’s target for the sector.
Official data from the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission showed there were 40 active drilling rigs in the country at the end of the year, while OPEC reported the number of active drilling rigs in Nigeria at 18 for November.
Going forward, Nigeria’s state-owned oil and gas company NNPC plans to “Intensify collaboration with our partners through year-end and into 2026 to ensure improved production performance, maximise infrastructure uptime, and maintain high facility maintenance standards across all our assets.”
NNPC is set to increase oil production to 2 million bpd over the next two years, its executive vice president for upstream, Udy Ntia, said in November 2025.
By 2030, NNPC will be pumping 3 million barrels daily, according to the official.
By Charles Kennedy for Oilprice.com
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