In its latest short term energy outlook (STEO), which was released on February 10, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) projected that U.S. total energy consumption will remain below 2025 levels in both 2026 and 2027.
According to its latest STEO, the EIA now sees U.S. total energy consumption coming in at 96.00 quadrillion British thermal units (qBtu) this year and 96.15 qBtu next year. In 2025, U.S. total energy consumption was 96.19 qBtu, the STEO showed.
A quarterly breakdown included in the EIA’s latest STEO projected that U.S. total energy consumption will come in at 25.30 qBtu in the first quarter of this year, 22.41 qBtu in the second quarter, 24.06 qBtu in the third quarter, 24.23 qBtu in the fourth quarter, 24.93 qBtu in the first quarter of next year, 22.61 qBtu in the second quarter, 24.29 qBtu in the third quarter, and 24.32 qBtu in the fourth quarter of 2027.
The EIA’s February STEO showed that total energy demand was 25.45 qBtu in the first quarter of 2025, 22.45 qBtu in the second quarter, 24.05 qBtu in the third quarter, and 24.24 qBtu in the fourth quarter.
Liquid Fuels, NatGas
Despite projecting that U.S. total energy consumption will not rise above 2025 levels for the next two years in its latest STEO, the EIA forecast that U.S. liquid fuels consumption will increase in both 2026 and 2027.
According to the EIA’s February STEO, the EIA sees U.S. liquid fuels averaging 20.59 million barrels per day in 2026 and 20.66 million barrels per day in 2027. This demand came in at 20.57 million barrels per day in 2025, the STEO showed.
The STEO projected that U.S. liquid fuels consumption will average 20.30 million barrels per day in the first quarter of this year, 20.60 million barrels per day in the second quarter, 20.78 million barrels per day in the third quarter, 20.66 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter, 20.32 million barrel per day in the first quarter of 2027, 20.82 million barrels per day in the second quarter, 20.80 million barrels per day in the third quarter, and 20.68 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter of 2027.
The EIA forecast in its latest STEO that U.S. natural gas consumption will stay flat this year, then drop next year.
In its February STEO, the EIA projected that U.S. natural gas demand will average 91.6 billion cubic feet per day in 2026 and 91.5 billion cubic feet per day in 2027. This demand came in at 91.6 billion cubic feet per day in 2025, the STEO showed.
A quarterly breakdown included in the EIA’s February STEO projected that U.S. natural gas consumption will average 109.2 billion cubic feet in the first quarter, 77.6 billion cubic feet in the second quarter, 85.3 billion cubic feet in the third quarter, 94.7 billion cubic feet in the fourth quarter, 105.8 billion cubic feet in the first quarter of next year, 78.1 billion cubic feet in the second quarter, 86.7 billion cubic feet in the third quarter, and 95.6 billion cubic feet in the fourth quarter of 2027.
Renewables
U.S. renewables consumption is projected to rise in both 2026 and 2027 in the EIA’s February STEO.
The EIA forecasts in the STEO that U.S. renewables demand will come in at 9.34 qBtu in 2026 and 9.89 qBtu in 2027. In 2025, this demand came in at 8.76 qBtu, the STEO highlighted.
The EIA projected in its latest STEO that U.S. renewables consumption will come in at 2.24 qBtu in the first quarter of this year, 2.44 qBtu in the second quarter, 2.36 qBtu in the third quarter, 2.30 qBtu in the fourth quarter, 2.38 qBtu in the first quarter of next year, 2.62 qBtu in the second quarter, 2.50 qBtu in the third quarter, and 2.40 qBtu in the fourth quarter of 2027.
The EIA noted in its STEO that renewable energy includes minor components of non-marketed renewable energy that is neither bought nor sold, either directly or indirectly, as inputs to marketed energy. The EIA added in the STEO that it does not estimate or project end-use consumption of non-marketed renewable energy.
In a note related to its total energy consumption figures, the EIA said in its STEO that the conversion from physical units to Btu is calculated using a subset of conversion factors used in the calculations of gross energy consumption in EIA’s Monthly Energy Review (MER).
The EIA collects, analyzes, and disseminates independent and impartial energy information to promote sound policymaking, efficient markets, and public understanding of energy and its interaction with the economy and the environment, the EIA states on its website.
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