Overall, the oil market maintains a cautiously bullish bias, Naeem Aslam, CIO at Zaye Capital Markets, said in a statement sent to Rigzone on Tuesday.
In the statement, Aslam predicted that oil prices are “likely to remain elevated and highly sensitive to any developments in Middle East tensions or shifts in supply dynamics”. He outlined that oil markets were continuing to “price in a heightened geopolitical risk premium driven by escalating U.S.-Iran tensions and the looming deadline on reopening the Strait of Hormuz”, which he dubbed “a critical global oil chokepoint”.
“Despite a modest OPEC+ supply increase of 206,000 barrels per day, concerns around potential disruption and military escalation are dominating price action, reinforcing a structurally tight supply outlook and keeping crude firmly above $100 per barrel, while broader demand recovery trends add further support,” Aslam said in the statement.
“Macro signals remain secondary, with recent mixed U.S. data pointing to slowing growth and persistent inflation, though attention now shifts to durable goods releases as a near-term catalyst – where weaker prints could reinforce the bullish oil narrative via stagflationary fears, and stronger data may trigger limited downside given the prevailing geopolitical backdrop,” he added.
In crude market commentary sent to Rigzone on Monday, John Coleman, Commodity Owner at Sparta Commodities, outlined that U.S. President Donald Trump’s Tuesday Hormuz deadline “is the week’s major binary”, adding that this deadline “is the only trade that matters in the near term”.
“A ceasefire would trigger a violent unwind of the geopolitical premium,” Coleman said in the commentary, predicting that the Brent oil price “could give back $15-20 in days”.
“The absence of a ceasefire, or worse, a U.S. strike on Iranian infrastructure, pushes us into genuinely uncharted territory on flat price,” Coleman warned.
“I don’t know which it is and don’t feel confident to even handicap outcomes,” he added.
“Bas[ed on]… everything I’ve seen, the path of escalation remains more probable than the path of de-escalation,” Coleman went on to state.
Li Xing Financial Markets Strategist Consultant to Exness, noted in a statement sent to Rigzone today that oil prices “were volatile, but remained elevated, as markets reacted to geopolitical uncertainty”.
“Markets could remain on edge ahead of the U.S. deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The absence of progress on the diplomatic front could reinforce concerns that disruptions to one of the world’s most critical oil transit routes could persist,” Xing added.
“At the same time, OPEC+’s efforts to increase output could help push crude prices down once tensions in the region recede and export capacity is back to normal levels. In the meantime, the possibility to see Iraqi oil exports back on the market could weigh on prices,” Xing continued.
Xing went on to warn that oil markets are likely to remain highly reactive to geopolitical developments.
“Any breakthrough and re-opening of the Strait of Hormuz could help restore export flows and trigger a potential correction,” Xing highlighted.
In an expletive-ridden post on his Truth Social page on April 5, Trump demanded that Iran open the Strait before following up with another post a few hours later that simply read “Tuesday, 8:00 P.M. Eastern Time!”.
In a statement sent to Rigzone on Friday, the Texas Independent Producers and Royalty Owners Association (TIPRO) said “the escalation of tensions with Iran into broader conflict in early 2026 has introduced significant global energy market vulnerabilities”.
“Early January geopolitical risks contributed to modest price premiums, but subsequent military actions and disruptions, particularly the near-complete closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which handles roughly one-fifth of global oil and LNG flows, triggered the largest supply shock in modern history,” the industry association added.
“As a result, Brent and WTI prices surged dramatically, exceeding 100 to 120 dollars per barrel by March 2026,” TIPRO pointed out.
A statement posted on OPEC’s website on Sunday revealed that Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, UAE, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman have decided to boost production by 206,000 barrels per day next month.
According to a table accompanying the statement, next month, Saudi Arabia and Russia will each boost output by 62,000 barrels per day, Iraq will increase output by 26,000 barrels per day, the UAE will increase by 18,000 barrels per day, Kuwait will boost production by 16,000 barrels per day, Kazakhstan will increase output by 10,000 barrels per day, Algeria will increase production by 6,000 barrels per day, and Oman will increase production by 5,000 barrels per day.
“In their collective commitment to support oil market stability, the eight participating countries decided to implement a production adjustment of 206,000 barrels per day from the 1.65 million barrels per day additional voluntary adjustments announced in April 2023,” the statement noted.
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