Higher oil and gas prices and volatile energy commodity markets are set to more than offset production losses from the Middle East at French supermajor TotalEnergies, which expects significantly higher upstream and LNG trading profits.
In the early days of the war, TotalEnergies warned that the conflict had effectively shut in 15% of its global oil and gas output, while the now-offline barrels account for about 10% of the supermajor’s upstream cash flow.
Oil and gas production for the first quarter of 2026 is expected to be in line with fourth quarter 2025, as start-ups in Brazil and Libya offset the loss of production in the Middle East, at around 100,000 boe/d over the quarter as initially guided, TotalEnergies said in an earnings preview on Thursday.
TotalEnergies, slated to report Q1 results on April 29, said today that “Considering this level of production, Exploration & Production results are expected to rise significantly”, to reflect $12.4 per barrel higher oil prices over the quarter, including the price lag effect in the United Arab Emirates, and the accretive contribution of the new projects.
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“Integrated LNG results and cash flow are expected to be significantly higher than fourth quarter 2025, underpinned by a 10% LNG production increase compared to fourth quarter and strong trading activities benefiting from market volatility,” the French supermajor said.
All other European oil and gas majors also expect higher earnings driven by increased prices and trading activity benefiting from the extreme market volatility.
Equinor, for example, today said its first-quarter income in the trading and marketing division would exceed its $400-million guidance amid significant volatility as a result of the war in the Middle East.
Earlier this week, BP said it expects to have booked an “exceptional” oil trading result for the first quarter of 2026, amid the extreme volatility in prices since the war in the Middle East began.
Shell also expects adjusted earnings in marketing and oil trading for the first quarter to be “significantly higher”.
By Michael Kern for Oilprice.com
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