The Middle East crisis and the subsequent jet fuel crunch have sent airline ticket prices soaring, with an estimated $105 (90 euros) increase per long-haul flight from Europe since the outbreak of the war, climate campaign group Transport & Environment (T&E) said on Tuesday.
Airline ticket prices have jumped for short European routes, too, but the long-haul routes, of course, have seen the biggest increases as Europe grapples with slashed jet fuel supply.
“The escalating crisis in the Middle East has sent profound shockwaves through the energy sector, but is particularly acute for aviation,” T&E said in its analysis today.
“To the surprise of many is the extent to which the aviation industry is easily shaken by political conflicts around the world because of its over-reliance on oil and jet kerosene produced and/or transited via the Middle East.”
According to the campaign group, “The recent Middle East crisis underscores that European aviation’s greatest vulnerability is its fossil fuel dependency, not the climate regulations.”
Europe could be weeks away from actual jet fuel/kerosene shortages, analysts and officials warned last week.
Accelerated refinery closures in the past decade and increased dependence on kerosene from the Middle East have exposed Europe’s energy supply vulnerability once again.
The war in Iran has cut most of Europe’s imports of jet fuel, while local output has been falling for nearly two decades due to dozens of refineries closing permanently or being converted to biofuel production.
Fatih Birol, the executive director of the International Energy Agency (IEA), last week warned that Europe has “maybe six weeks or so” of remaining jet fuel supply.
Northwest Europe is one of the regions most exposed to the jet fuel crisis, as imports have dropped from historical norms this month, and the import decline is set to accelerate in the coming weeks as more U.S. jet fuel cargoes would go to Asia instead of Europe, Ernest Censier, market analyst at Vortexa, said in an analysis last week.
By Charles Kennedy for Oilprice.com
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