In a market analysis sent to Rigzone on Tuesday, Naeem Aslam, CIO Zaye Capital Markets, highlighted that Brent crude was holding strong “as the market correctly prices in ongoing supply risks from the disrupted Strait of Hormuz”.
Aslam highlighted in the analysis that vessel traffic in the Strait “remains heavily restricted” and warned that “diplomatic progress stays painfully slow”.
“At Zaye Capital Markets, we are firmly bullish: oil is rising on physical scarcity and limited barrel access, not demand strength, with the President’s dissatisfaction over Iran’s reopening proposals underscoring that meaningful flows won’t return quickly,” Aslam said.
“Today’s U.S. Consumer Confidence release is important but secondary – if confidence beats expectations, it will add fuel to the rally, yet even a weak print is unlikely to spark any serious sell-off while Hormuz remains choked,” he added.
Aslam went on to state in the analysis that traders should ignore short-term demand noise and stay positioned for higher prices.
“Until tankers move freely again, the risk premium will dominate, keeping oil volatile with a clear upward bias,” he said.
In remarks to the United Nations (UN) Security Council on April 27, which were transcribed on the UN website, UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said, “navigational rights and freedoms through the Strait of Hormuz must be respected – as affirmed by this Council’s Resolution 2817”.
“These principles must be upheld – in full, and without delay. I appeal to the parties: Open the Strait. Let ships pass. No tolls. No discrimination. Let trade resume. Let the global economy breathe,” he added.
“This moment calls for restraint, dialogue, and confidence-building. The way forward is through peaceful settlement – drawing on Articles 33 and 34 of Chapter VI of the UN Charter,” he continued.
“My good offices remain available to support Member States in finding common ground. My Special Representatives and Envoys are working closely with national and regional partners to help resolve disputes,” he went on to state.
In these remarks, Guterres noted that the Strait of Hormuz is one of the world’s most critical maritime chokepoints.
“It carries roughly one fifth of global oil trade, one fifth of global liquefied natural gas, and nearly one third of internationally traded fertilizers,” he pointed out, adding that “safe, unimpeded passage is an economic and humanitarian imperative”.
“The economic shock has been immediate – and everyone is paying the price,” Guterres highlighted in his remarks.
Rigzone has contacted the White House and the Iranian Ministry of Foreign Affairs for comment on Aslam and Guterres’ statements. At the time of writing, neither have responded to Rigzone.
In a commodities note sent to Rigzone on Friday, Ole S. Hansen, Head of Commodity Strategy at Saxo Bank, warned that the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz has triggered a broad and deep supply shock that is now affecting multiple sectors, from energy to agriculture.
“While demand destruction and inventory drawdowns have helped contain the immediate price impact in crude, the underlying stress is increasingly visible in refined products, fertilizers and industrial inputs,” Hansen said in that note.
“Even with a reopening, normalization will be slow, with logistical and operational challenges likely to keep markets tight for months,” he added.
“At the same time, the crisis is accelerating structural shifts, including renewed interest in clean energy and a reassessment of supply chain resilience,” he continued.
“For investors and traders, the key takeaway is that the impact of this disruption will be both broad and persistent, extending well beyond the initial shock to oil markets,” Hansen went on to state.
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