The profound growth of U.S. LNG is exceeding all expectations.
That’s what Daniel Yergin, Vice Chairman of S&P Global, said in a statement sent to Rigzone recently, adding that, “what has become a $44 billion annual industry in just the last decade is now poised to be the country’s second largest net export within five years”.
“The economic gains in terms of jobs, GDP, and labor income are on track to surpass all prior expectations, while the abundance of U.S. gas resources means that domestic prices remain among the lowest in the world,” he added.
“The economic benefits and low domestic prices, along with significant contributions to global energy security and the influence that comes from being the world’s largest supplier add up to the benefit of the United States,” Yergin went on to state.
S&P’s statement highlighted a “comprehensive” new S&P Global Energy study, which it said offered an independent and objective assessment of the economic, market, and global impact of the U.S. LNG industry “built from a detailed bottom-up approach, at the asset and market level, technology by technology”.
Outlining base case economic impacts of U.S. LNG exports through 2040, the statement projected that the sector would support 555,000 annual jobs, contribute $1.4 trillion to U.S. GDP, total $2.9 trillion in total business revenues, provide $206 billion in federal and state taxes, contribute $630 billion in labor income, and become the second largest U.S. net export industry by 2031.
Compared to December 2024 projections, these figures marked an increase of 55,000 annual jobs, $100 billion in U.S. GDP, $400 billion in total business revenue, $40 billion in tax revenue, and $130 billion in labor income, the statement highlighted.
“The new study projects that, under current conditions, U.S. feedgas demand for LNG exports will double to 36 billion cubic feet per day in the next five years, 25 percent higher than previous base case projections,” S&P said in the statement.
“The United States, already the world’s leading supplier of LNG, is expected to surpass a one-third share of the global market during this time, almost certainly making LNG exports the second largest net export industry in the United States, second only to U.S. civilian aircraft and parts,” it added.
Negligible Impact on Domestic Prices
S&P said in its statement that the economic benefits occur while the impact on U.S. domestic natural gas prices is negligible.
“The study projects an average increase in end user gas costs of just 1.6 percent per household from 2026 to 2031,” S&P noted.
“United States domestic natural gas prices will continue to rank among the lowest in the world for both residential and industrial sectors,” it added.
Eric Eyberg, Vice President, Gas and LNG at S&P Global Energy, highlighted in the statement that “more than 45 years of identified commercial gas resource in the United States at today’s production levels and the world’s most interconnected pipeline network are what enable both exports and low domestic prices”.
“Since 2010, domestic prices have trended downward even as demand for U.S. gas has grown 70 percent,” he added.
“The recent Iran conflict has proven the U.S. domestic gas market resilient to external shocks relative to global gas and other commodities. U.S. Henry Hub gas prices declined during the conflict,” he continued.
S&P also outlined that its study showed that flexible U.S. LNG has turned export capacity into a domestic gas price shock absorber.
Infrastructure
S&P highlighted in its statement that, according to its study, the “shale gas revolution and abundance of the U.S. natural gas resource base have shifted the domestic market dynamic to a new paradigm where infrastructure constraints are often the key driver of higher-priced regional markets and price volatility”.
The company noted that the U.S. has the world’s most interconnected gas infrastructure network, with more than 300,000 miles of natural gas transmission pipelines but warned that “key bottlenecks remain”.
“The study examines the potential impact of expanded pipeline capacity in the U.S. Northeast, where winter heating and growing winter power loads have led to highly seasonal demand and extreme price volatility,” the statement noted.
“New capacity additions could reduce peak winter month gas prices by more than 20 percent in key New England and New York markets during the 2028-2031 period, the study finds,” it added.
Eyberg said in the statement that the U.S. “is in the enviable position where supply and demand are not a major issue”.
“Since 2010, domestic gas production has been able to grow three times the amount of U.S. LNG exports,” he added.
He went on to state, however, that infrastructure constraints and imbalances are what drive higher regional prices and volatility.
“The ability to build pipelines is the main challenge,” he said.
Global Gas Prices
S&P highlighted that its study also considered the implications of any curtailment of export volumes from U.S. LNG projects sanctioned post-U.S. LNG ‘pause’.
“Under an ‘Extended Pause’ scenario where the new investment since 2025 in U.S. export capacity was not realized, global LNG markets would tighten significantly by 2031,” S&P noted.
That would push prices “50 percent higher for Europe and Asia and effectively transfer… up to $76 billion per year to non-U.S. energy suppliers that would step in to fill demand, mostly with other fossil fuels, including coal,” it added.
S&P warned that, as the United States is currently the number one supplier of LNG to Europe, the largest beneficiary of any curtailment of U.S. flows would be Russia.
S&P noted that its latest study updated the findings of a December 2024 study “to account for a surge in LNG investment that has occurred since the lifting of the U.S. LNG ‘pause’ in January 2025, with seven new projects taking final investment decision and several more expected in the next 6-12 months”.
The study was produced by S&P Global CERA Consulting and represents the collaboration of S&P Global Energy and S&P Global Market Intelligence, “supported by the world’s largest expert team of more than 1,400 energy and economic research analysts and consultants continuously monitoring, modelling and evaluating markets and assets”, the statement outlined.
The statement also noted that the research was supported by the U.S. Chamber of Commerce.
2026, 2027 USA LNG Gross Exports
In its latest short term energy outlook (STEO), which was released earlier this month, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) projected that U.S. LNG gross exports will average 17.4 billion cubic feet per day in 2026 and 18.6 billion cubic feet per day in 2027. These exports came in at 15.1 billion cubic feet in 2025, the STEO showed.
A quarterly breakdown included in its latest STEO projected that LNG gross exports will average 16.7 billion cubic feet per day in the third quarter, 18.0 billion cubic feet per day in the fourth quarter, 18.7 billion cubic feet per day in the first quarter of next year, 18.6 billion cubic feet per day in the second quarter, 17.6 billion cubic feet per day in the third quarter, and 19.6 billion cubic feet per day in the fourth quarter.
These exports averaged 17.8 billion cubic feet per day in the first quarter and 17.2 billion cubic feet per day in the first quarter, the STEO showed.
In its previous STEO, which was released in June, the EIA projected that LNG gross exports would average 17.2 billion cubic feet in 2026 and 18.6 billion cubic feet in 2027. Back in its May STEO, the EIA saw LNG gross exports coming in at 17.0 billion cubic feet per day this year and 18.2 billion cubic feet per day next year.
“U.S. liquefied natural gas export capacity grew by about 0.9 billion cubic feet per day in April, led by the first shipment from Golden Pass LNG’s Train 1 and additional output from Corpus Christi Stage 3,” the EIA said in its May STEO.
“Corpus Christi Train 6 is scheduled to come online in summer 2026, adding an additional 0.2 billion cubic feet per day of nominal export capacity, but long lead times for adding new export capacity will constrain growth in U.S. LNG exports,” it added.
“Global LNG prices remain elevated as a result of reduced flows through the Strait of Hormuz, with a wide spread between U.S. domestic natural gas prices and international markets,” the EIA went on to state in that STEO.
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