A statement posted on OPEC’s website on Sunday revealed Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman’s production plan for next month.
The statement, which highlighted that the seven OPEC+ countries met virtually on Sunday “to review market conditions and outlook”, outlined that the OPEC+ 7 “reaffirm[ed] [their] commitment to market stability” in the meeting.
“The seven OPEC+ countries, which previously announced additional voluntary adjustments in April and November 2023 … decided to maintain September 2026 required production for October 2026,” the statement revealed.
“The seven countries reiterated their collective commitment to achieve full conformity with the Declaration of Cooperation,” it added.
A table accompanying the statement published on OPEC’s site on Sunday showed October’s “required production” is 10.478 million barrels per day for Saudi Arabia, 9.949 million barrels per day for Russia, 4.431 million barrels per day for Iraq, 2.676 million barrels per day for Kuwait, 1.628 million barrels per day for Kazakhstan, 1.007 million barrels per day for Algeria, and 841,000 barrels per day for Oman.
September’s “required production” was identical for the seven countries, a table accompanying a statement published on OPEC’s site last month showed. That statement revealed that Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman decided, in a virtual meeting held on August 2, to increase their production target by 188,000 barrels per day in September.
The latest statement posted on OPEC’s site noted that the seven OPEC+ countries will continue to hold monthly meetings “to review market conditions”. The next meeting will be held on October 4, according to the statement.
In a market analysis sent to Rigzone on Monday, Naeem Aslam, CIO at Zaye Capital Markets, noted that OPEC+ “kept October production policy unchanged rather than introducing a fresh supply increase”, which he said “leaves the market more exposed to disruptions in existing Gulf exports”.
“At the same time, the latest available global assessment expects 2026 oil supply to fall by 4.3 million barrels per day to around 102 million barrels per day, while demand is projected to decline by 1.6 million barrels per day as high prices and disrupted trade begin to weaken consumption,” he added.
“That creates the key oil market tension: geopolitical risk and constrained flows are lifting prices in the short term, but the higher crude moves, the greater the pressure on transportation, manufacturing, airlines, and household fuel spending, increasing the risk of demand destruction later,” Aslam warned.
In another market analysis sent to Rigzone today, Monte Safieddine, Head of Market Research at Capital.com, highlighted that OPEC+ kept its October output policy unchanged at Sunday’s meeting “as expected”.
A market quick take posted on Saxo Bank’s website on Monday noted that the OPEC+ “sub-group led by Saudi Arabia and Russia kept October production quotas unchanged, in line with their roadmap to hold targets flat through year-end”.
“Saudi Arabia will produce 10.5 million barrels per day in October,” the quick take pointed out.
In a report sent to Rigzone on Friday, Ole S. Hansen, Saxo Bank’s Head of Commodity Strategy, pointed out that OPEC+ ministers were meeting on Sunday, “with Reuters reporting that the group is expected to leave its October production policy unchanged after completing the unwinding of one layer of earlier production cuts”.
“With geopolitical disruptions preventing several producers from fully translating higher quotas into additional exports, the group’s ability to influence near-term prices has arguably diminished,” Hansen warned in that report.
In another report sent to Rigzone on Friday, Bjarne Schieldrop, Chief Commodities Analyst at Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken AB (SEB) revealed that SEB expects OPEC+ to opt for more volume once Strait of Hormuz exports “normalize”.
“There is a clear risk of controlled OPEC+ supply growth, adding to downside risks for 2027-28,” he warned.
In this report, Schieldrop noted that oil markets remained “tight as the Strait of Hormuz continues to be constrained”.
“Things could become much tighter if it is fully closed. However, the outlook could change rapidly if flows normalize in early 2027,” he said.
“A large underlying surplus, rebuilding supply, and the risk of more volume from OPEC+ could turn today’s tightness into a significantly weaker oil market in 2027-28,” he went on to state.
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