India cannot and likely will not replace all the Russian crude oil it is importing despite the threat of 100% tariffs on its products in the United States, according to analysts.
Earlier this month, U.S. President Donald Trump signed into law the “Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act of 2026,” which authorizes and expands statutory sanctions, tariffs, and prohibitions on Russia and extends existing sanctions on Iran.
The law allows the President to potentially impose trade tariffs of up to 100% on countries that are large importers of Russian oil and natural gas.
India is the second-largest importer of Russian crude oil, behind China, while imports from Russia have accounted for nearly half of all Indian crude purchases in recent months.
As one of the biggest buyers of Russian crude oil, India could face tariffs of up to 100% on its goods exported to the United States. Moreover, the potential tariffs could sour trade relations just as New Delhi and Washington have been negotiating a bilateral trade deal for months.
India responded to the U.S. bill, saying it has discussed the issue at high level with various U.S. officials and expressed concerns about the implications of potential tariffs because of Russian oil purchases “for not just the bilateral relationship but also the international energy market.”
While India has the economic incentive to buy Russian crude oil, the U.S. may have an incentive not to drive up oil prices too much if it were to slap tariffs on India and force it into curbing Russian imports, according to analysts.
“Replacing Russian crude quickly could raise India’s import bill and domestic inflation, particularly when the Middle East is already facing supply and shipping disruptions and Brent is above $100,” Prerna Gandhi, an associate fellow at Indian think tank Vivekananda International Foundation, told Nikkei Asia.
But the U.S. may not be willing to remove millions of barrels per day of Russian crude oil from the market at a time when oil prices are rallying, U.S. gasoline prices are rising even in off-peak season, and diesel prices are at record highs, according to Gandhi.
India could negotiate exemptions or waivers from the new U.S. sanctions law, the analyst told Nikkei Asia.
By Tsvetana Paraskova for Oilprice.com
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