BP Exceeds Profit Estimates Driven by Upstream Recovery

BP (NYSE: BP) on Tuesday reported stronger-than-expected earnings for the third quarter as higher output, field start-ups, and improved refining margins offset weaker oil prices and trading result. 

BP booked an underlying replacement cost profit – the closest metric to net profit – of $2.21 billion for the third quarter, essentially flat on the year, but surpassing an average consensus estimate of $2 billion. 

The UK-based supermajor cited higher profitability in the operating segments, increased refining margins and utilization rates, and a 3% higher upstream production compared to the second quarter as key drivers of its Q3 earnings. 

These factors offset a weaker oil trading result and lower price realizations as BP’s average liquids realization price slumped to $64.57 per barrel in the third quarter of 2025 from $74.80 a barrel for the same quarter last year. 

Operating cash flow jumped to $7.8 billion, up from $6.3 billion for the second quarter of 2025 and from $6.8 billion for the third quarter of 2024.

BP, which early this year reset its strategy to shift focus back to its core oil and gas business, kept its buyback at $750 million related to the Q3 results. 

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“All six of the major oil and gas projects planned for 2025 are online, including four ahead of schedule. We’ve sanctioned our seventh operated production hub in the Gulf of America and have had further exploration success,” BP’s chief executive officer Murray Auchincloss said, commenting on the Q3 earnings and the progress to revive BP’s upstream production. 

“We are looking to accelerate delivery of our plans, including undertaking a thorough review of our portfolio to drive simplification and targeting further improvements in cost performance and efficiency.” 

BP wrapped up the earnings season for Big Oil, in which most supermajors beat analyst estimates on the back of higher oil and gas production and improved refining margins.   

By Tsvetana Paraskova for Oilprice.com

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