Equinor raised its 2026 oil and gas production growth forecast to around 4% after higher commodity prices and record earnings at its Mongstad refinery helped more than double third-quarter operating profit.
The Norwegian producer now expects faster growth than its previous guidance of 3%, following quarterly equity production of 2.166 million barrels of oil equivalent per day. International growth helped lift total output even as production on the Norwegian continental shelf remained broadly flat.
Reported operating profit rose to $11.96 billion from $5.27 billion a year earlier. Adjusted operating income reached $12.35 billion, slightly above the $12.19 billion analyst consensus compiled by Equinor. Adjusted earnings per share were $1.20, below consensus of $1.37.
Higher Prices and Record Refining Earnings
Equinor realized a European gas price of $20 per million British thermal units and an average liquids price of $92.30 per barrel.
Those prices supported upstream earnings, while high refining margins and strong operating performance delivered a record contribution from Mongstad.
The Marketing, Midstream and Processing segment generated adjusted operating income of $893 million, compared with analyst expectations of $793 million. LNG trading also contributed strongly.
The gains were not uniform across the trading business. Crude, Products and Liquids reported a loss as negative effects from derivative positions in a tight shipping market more than offset strong products trading.
International Growth Lifts Production
Equinor’s total equity production increased from 2.130 million boe per day a year earlier to 2.166 million boe per day, also exceeding analyst expectations of 2.129 million boe per day.
Production in the international oil and gas segment rose 21%, supported by Adura in the UK, Bacalhau in Brazil and lower turnaround activity.
However, higher production did not translate fully into higher sales. International lifted volumes were below Equinor’s share of production, limiting the revenue benefit during the quarter.
On the Norwegian continental shelf, Halten East, Verdande and new wells offset natural decline and unplanned production losses at Johan Castberg and Troll. Norwegian production was broadly unchanged from the same quarter last year.
U.S. output declined as planned offshore downtime and natural decline more than offset higher onshore production.
Cash Generation Strengthens the Balance Sheet
Cash flow from operations after taxes paid, excluding working capital movements, reached $8.14 billion, up 53% year on year. Reported cash flow from operating activities, including working capital movements, was $7.55 billion. Organic capital expenditure totaled $3.28 billion.
The adjusted net debt-to-capital-employed ratio fell to 3.8% at the end of September from 10.4% at the end of June.
Equinor declared a quarterly dividend of $0.39 per share and approved a final 2026 share buyback tranche of up to $1.125 billion, starting October 29. The expected full-year buyback program totals up to $3 billion, including shares to be redeemed from the Norwegian state.
The production outlook highlights two different challenges within Equinor’s portfolio. International projects are adding output, while new Norwegian fields and wells are replacing volumes lost to natural decline and outages. Sustaining new-field output and limiting further unplanned outages will be central to delivering the higher full-year growth target.
By Jan Thore Bergsagel for Oilprice.com
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