The benchmark European natural gas prices fell by 2% in the early morning in Amsterdam on Thursday, extending Wednesday’s decline, after the resounding Democratic victory in the U.S. midterm elections raised hopes of a resolution to the Iran war and a return of LNG flows through the Strait of Hormuz.
The front-month price at the Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF), the benchmark for Europe’s gas trading, fell by 2.2% as of 9 a.m. in Amsterdam on Thursday, as energy markets hope the path forward to the Iran war could be pursuit of diplomacy rather than escalation.
At $96.87 (86.14 euros) per megawatt-hour (MWh), the front-month TTF price is now at its lowest in two weeks, and markedly down from the four-year high of over 101.82 euros ($114) per MWh at the end of last week.
Last week, the European benchmark price topped the 100-euro mark for the first time since 2022, during the previous gas crisis when Russia cut off pipeline gas supply to most of its European customers after Putin invaded Ukraine.
Europe remains in a vulnerable gas supply position ahead of winter proper as LNG flows from Qatar are barely a trickle and QatarEnergy has extended the force majeure on deliveries until the end of December 2026, at the very least.
But the defeat of the Republicans in the midterms, and the admission of Vice President JD Vance that the Iran war is to blame for the loss, raised market hopes that President Donald Trump could choose diplomacy over escalation in Iran, with oil prices also reflecting this optimism.
“Where we come out the other side of winter is largely dependent on how much of a recovery we see in Persian Gulf LNG flows this winter, if any,” ING’s commodities analysts Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey said in a note on Thursday.
“And, of course, given the tighter market, weather is going to be even more important than usual through the winter.”
By Tsvetana Paraskova for Oilprice.com
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