HSBC has shaved a few bucks off its oil price crystal ball this week, citing Trump’s tariff tirades and OPEC+’s decision to open the spigots wider than expected. In a note released Tuesday, the bank cut its 2025 Brent forecast to $68.50 per barrel (down from $73), and its 2026 estimate to $65 (from $70).
That’s a notable downgrade, especially as the market tries to figure out if the tariff-induced panic is just short-term, or whether it is the start of a longer slog.
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HSBC’s revised WTI numbers came down too: $65.40 in 2025 and $62 in 2026, both down about $5 from earlier projections. They also trimmed global demand growth expectations to 0.7 million barrels per day (mbd) for 2025 and 0.8 mbd in 2026. The previous estimate was a more hopeful 0.9 mbd for both years. Tariffs, it seems, aren’t just bruising trade—they’re also putting a dent in demand optimism.
To put HSBC’s new outlook in context: it now sits on the lower-middle shelf of Wall Street’s oil-price pantry. Goldman Sachs is more bearish with a 2026 Brent call at $58, while Barclays and BMI are still wearing their rose-colored barrels, holding firm with estimates in the mid-to-high $70s. Meanwhile, JP Morgan and Citi are clustered in the mid-$60s range, also signaling that no one sees triple-digit crude coming back anytime soon—barring a geopolitical tantrum, of course.
The revised numbers come as Brent struggles to stay above $63 and WTI hovers near $60—both down over 20% from their early-year highs. With OPEC+ loosening the reins and tariffs flying like confetti, the oil market is short on bullish catalysts and long on uncertainty.
Bottom line from HSBC’s reality check? Don’t bet the ranch on $80 crude anytime soon.
By Julianne Geiger for Oilprice.com
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