India is on track to export the highest volume of refined petroleum products in months as refining margins have jumped with the re-escalation of the Middle East conflict.
India is estimated to ship as many as 1.55 million barrels per day (bpd) of light and middle distillates in July, per data by commodity analysts Kpler cited by Reuters columnist Clyde Russell.
The July volumes would be nearly double the fuel export volumes of just 866,000 bpd in May, when the Strait of Hormuz crisis hit crude supplies to India and the rest of Asia. In May, India saw its lowest fuel exports in four years.
The tightening fuel markets in Asia and the rest of the world added to a renewed rally in refining margins after the U.S.-Iran ceasefire collapsed two weeks ago. This has encouraged Indian refiners to ramp up refined petroleum exports.
The expected volumes in July would be the second-highest level in Kpler’s data series dating back to 2017.
Earlier this month, Kpler estimated that India’s refined petroleum exports would hit in July the highest level since September 2025 as refiners race to capture soaring margins amid tight Asian fuel markets.
India’s high export levels in July could ease some of the pressure on the Asian fuel market, but not all of it, as crude supplies from the Middle East are once again at high risk of delay.
Asian refiners that had bet on a flood of crude supply from the Middle East in August are now faced with potential delays in deliveries amid the re-escalation of hostilities, which could thwart their plans to ramp up crude processing rates in the coming weeks.
Refiners in the U.S. and Europe are operating at near capacity, but those in Asia may not see the expected increase in throughput now that the July and August loadings and delivery schedules have been upended by the re-escalation of the Middle East conflict.
By Charles Kennedy for Oilprice.com
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