Oil and natural gas markets surged after Iran signaled it could retaliate against key regional energy infrastructure following reported strikes on its upstream assets. Brent crude climbed as much as 6% to $10.56 per barrel, while Europe’s gas benchmark jumped nearly 8%, highlighting mounting fears of supply disruption.
Tehran said U.S. and Israeli forces targeted the South Pars gas field and associated facilities in Asaluyeh. The strike marks a significant escalation, representing the first direct attack on Iran’s upstream production since the conflict began. South Pars—shared with Qatar and known as the world’s largest gas field—is central to Iran’s energy system, with output reaching a record 730 million cubic meters per day in 2025.
In response, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) warned that major energy assets across the Gulf could become “legitimate targets.” Semi-official media published a list of potential sites, including the Ras Laffan refinery and Mesaieed petrochemical complex in Qatar, the Samref refinery and Jubail petrochemical hub in Saudi Arabia, and the Al Hosn gas field in the United Arab Emirates.
The threat has already prompted action. Saudi Aramco reportedly evacuated personnel from the Samref refinery following the warning, underscoring the seriousness of the risk facing regional infrastructure.
The surge in prices highlights growing concern that the conflict is expanding into direct attacks on critical energy infrastructure.
The broader energy system is already under strain. Ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has largely stalled, with Kpler estimating that a total of 90 ships have passed the narrow waterway since the outbreak of the war. while disruptions in Qatar have affected liquefied natural gas output from the world’s largest export hub. Several major producers have also cut millions of barrels per day in supply.
Further escalation could trigger cascading effects across global markets. Countries such as Turkey, which relies on Iran for more than 10% of its gas supply, may be forced to seek additional spot LNG cargoes, intensifying competition. Europe and Asia are also bracing for sustained volatility in both oil and gas prices.
With both sides now signaling a willingness to target critical energy infrastructure, the conflict risks evolving into a broader supply shock—one that could push both crude and LNG prices significantly higher and test the resilience of global energy markets.
By Tom Kool for Oilprice.com
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