US gas producers could gain Asian market share at the expense of Australian exporters in the long run, as countries running a trade surplus with the US, like Japan and South Korea, are compelled to buy more American LNG to avoid Trump’s tariffs, according to Bloomberg Intelligence.
Chinese buyers have already agreed to buy a combined 14 million tons of US LNG from 2026, 50% higher than the previous record in 2021, BI analysts including Chia Chen and Henik Fung said in a note on Tuesday. China might add more shipments to negotiate favorable tariffs with Trump’s administration, they said.
Trump’s reversal of the US LNG export ban will likely also revive new gas projects and pave the way for stronger export growth. Currently, surplus supply in Asia, China’s faltering recovery and Japan’s nuclear restart could cap Asian LNG prices at $10/mmbtu, the analysts said.
Drivers:
- LNG send-out in Europe was at ~3.1 TWh/day on Jan. 26, according to latest available data; -0.4% w/w: GIE data
- European gas storage levels were ~56% full on Jan. 26, compared with the five-year seasonal average of 63%
- The 30-day moving average of Chinese LNG imports was 215k tons/day on Jan. 25, down 0.5% from a week earlier, according to ship-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg
- The 30-day moving average of LNG deliveries to Japan has remained below the 5-year average since mid-October, according to ship tracking data
- Estimated flows to all US export terminals were ~14.2 bcf/day on Jan. 27, +3.1% w/w: BNEF
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