In a report sent to Rigzone late Tuesday by Standard Chartered Bank Commodities Research Head Paul Horsnell, analysts at the company, including Horsnell, highlighted that, in their view, “market confusion about the potential effect of various U.S. energy and foreign policies is acting as a severe drag on prices”.
“Bearish sentiment in the oil markets has continued for a further week, with the acute general risk-off mood – notably in the global equity markets – resulting in front-month Brent settling at a six-month settlement low of $69.28 per barrel on 10 March,” the analysts said in the report, pointing out that “it reached a three-year low of $68.33 per barrel intra-day on 5 March”.
“All of the first 15 months on the Brent curve fell week on week by more than $2 per barrel; the week on week fall for the front month was $2.34 per barrel and the largest move was the $2.45 per barrel week on week fall in the August 2025 contract,” the analysts noted in the report.
“Further along the curve, Brent for delivery five years out fell by $0.63 per barrel to a 20-month low of $66.37 per barrel,” they went on to state.
“Of the 35 trading days since President Trump’s inauguration, Brent has settled lower on 20 and has recorded a lower intra-high on 25 days, with the cumulative price fall reaching $10.01 per barrel at settlement on 10 March,” the analysts continued.
In the report, the analysts went on to note that the price undershoot has been exacerbated by a further deterioration in speculative positioning.
“Our combined crude oil money-manager positioning index has fallen by 6.9 week on week to -35.0, and the equivalent indices have fallen week on week for all the main products (heating oil, gasoil, and gasoline blendstock),” they said.
While the balance of speculative positioning has shifted towards the short side, both shorts and longs have been reducing risk, the Standard Chartered analysts noted in the report.
“Over the past week longs across the four main Brent and WTI contracts fell 44.7 million barrels (mb) to a 12-week low of 467.5 mb, while shorts fell by 21.8 mb from the previous week’s six-month high to 249.8mb,” they added.
Rigzone has contacted the Trump transition team and the White House for comment on Standard Chartered Bank’s report. At the time of writing, neither have responded to Rigzone.
In an oil and gas report sent to Rigzone by the Macquarie team on Tuesday, Macquarie strategists said they have been largely bearish oil for the past several months, adding that, “given the fact our supply/demand balances for 2025 remain quite long at ~ one million barrels per day, we remain bearish”.
“Our long balances are driven by healthy supply growth across NOPEC and decent but still below trend demand growth of 1.2 million barrels per day,” they added.
“That said, perceptions of market tightness may diverge widely. For sour crude buyers, the market appear[s] exceptionally tight; light sweet crude buyers feel well supplied,” they continued.
“Unlike our previous view however, we believe downside potential is now more limited given the large sell-off which has put crude closer to our high $60 price targets for 1H25,” the Macquarie strategists went on to state.
In a research note sent to Rigzone by the JPM Commodities Research team on Monday, analysts at J.P. Morgan said the estimated value of open interest across energy markets declined by a further $4 billion week on week despite over $8 billion of weekly inflows.
“The near four percent week on week decline in crude oil benchmark prices outstripped contract inflows of near $2.8 billion week on week, dragging the estimated value of open interest down by $8.6 billion week on week,” the J.P. Morgan analysts added.
“Meanwhile across natural gas markets, contract-based inflows bounced to a four-week high of near $5 billion week on week, driving up the estimated open interest value to $8.4 billion week on week,” they continued.
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