Crude oil prices were on course to book a weekly gain earlier today, amid continuing Iranian strikes on tankers in the Strait of Hormuz and a substantial inventory draw in the United States, at 8.56 million barrels for the week to October 9.
At the time of writing, Brent crude was trading at $105.48 per barrel, with West Texas Intermediate at $97.40 per barrel. Both were off highs touched earlier in the week, but still higher than last Friday.
“Uncertainty in the Middle East and concerns over the sustainability of oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz have the market pricing in a significant risk premium,” ING’s commodity team said in a note earlier on Friday. “The longer this pickup in flows continues, the more likely the market will start giving back some of this risk premium,” Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey said, adding, however, that “In order to see a full removal, there needs to be some kind of agreement between the US and Iran.”
Kpler, meanwhile, reported that Iranian strikes on tankers in the Strait of Hormuz had driven oil flows sharply down. In the week to October 13, the daily average dropped to 11.62 million barrels, from a baseline of 17.15 million barrels daily, Reuters reported today.
The security risks in the Persian Gulf have contributed significantly to higher oil prices, and recent reports about attempts to rein those in have failed to make an impression. Among these was the IEA’s announcement of an inventory release totalling 100 million barrels, which represents the remaining deliveries from the 400-million-barrel emergency release agreed in March 2026. President Trump also suggested lifting sanctions on some so-called shadow fleet tankers in order to bring down record-high freight rates, resulting from a squeeze on tanker availability.
ING’s commodity analysts questioned the availability of those tankers, since they are already in use, despite the sanctions. They also pointed to EU sanctions still in place for those vessels, making insuring them a potential problem.
By Irina Slav for Oilprice.com
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