Oil-Service Companies Set to Reveal War’s Impact on Earnings

This week will offer the clearest picture yet of the Iran war’s impact on the world’s biggest oil field service providers, with the likes of SLB Ltd., Baker Hughes Co. and Halliburton Co. all expected to take hits to their bottom line.

Halliburton is set to report a 2% drop in per-share profit when it kicks off the sector’s earnings season on Tuesday, according to average analyst estimates. Later in the week, SLB is seen reporting a 31% fall, which would be the biggest falloff since the last three months of 2020. And Baker Hughes is expected to follow Sunday with a 21% drop. Both SLB and Baker Hughes have higher exposure to the Middle East.

April through June marks the first full quarter since the US-Israeli war on Iran escalated and production was curbed or stopped entirely in several countries, including Iraq, Qatar and Kuwait. Companies including Weatherford International Plc. and Halliburton guided for a larger second-quarter impact as they halted operations and faced uncertain recovery timing even as activity in the US has ramped up in recent months.

Scott Gruber, an analyst at Citigroup Global Markets Inc., said in an interview investors and analysts will be seeking insight into the path forward in the Middle East, as well as clues on how quickly global oil field activity could rebound in 2027 and which regions could drive growth.

“North American operators, led by the private operators, are seeing an increase in activity, but we’re also seeing increases in activity across Latin America and Europe and Africa,” Gruber said. “So outside of the Middle East, the oil field services markets are generally improving.”

A pickup in US drilling after months of subdued activity has helped offset weakness in the Middle East. Higher oil prices have encouraged producers  about 46 oil rigs from lows in December, with oil field wages rising to 

James West, an energy analyst at Melius Research, said investors will be looking to know how things have changed since some Middle East production came back online sooner than anticipated, though the situation remains unpredictable. “We’ll want to understand what is the situation on the ground in the Middle East as we’re getting back to work. What the reservoirs look like, what the production looks like, how quickly can we bring that production back online?”

He said shale companies are expected to remain cautious on spending, though stronger oil prices could push budgets toward the top end of their guidance in an attempt to capture more profit.

“The service companies will probably sense at least that there’s going to be a bias and more inquiries and more discussions and more tightness in the oil-service market than there was a quarter ago,” West said.

The resiliency of the oil field service industry remains a key focus for investors, who are looking for management to provide confidence in the outlook beyond 2026, Gruber said. “People would like to see a multiyear growth trend emerge.”

Part of that resilience includes branching out to provide infrastructure and power solutions to data centers, a growing business for the sector. “It’s a natural step out for them to get engaged,” West said.

“It makes sense if natural gas is going to be our power source for a lot of these data centers behind the meter, then the oil-service company, that’s their bread and butter,” West added later.