Supply constraints and rising costs threaten the UK’s ability to meet sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) targets, warns UK governmental advisory body Climate Change Committee (CCC) in its Seventh Carbon Budget.
SAF is now projected to account for just 6% of the UK’s aviation fuel mix by 2030, falling short of the government’s 10% goal. By 2040, this figure is expected to reach 17%, yet the CCC warns that feedstock limitations and intensifying global competition could hinder progress.
The report, which came out in late February but is still being picked over, highlights that access to sustainable feedstocks, such as used cooking oils and agricultural waste, remains a key challenge. The UK faces stiff competition from the US, EU, and China, which have implemented more aggressive SAF policies and incentives. Without sufficient domestic production, the UK could become a net importer of SAF, making it more expensive and less competitive.
Even if supply challenges are addressed, costs remain a major obstacle. The CCC report states, “Synthetic fuels will remain around seven times more expensive than conventional kerosene by 2050, while biomass-derived SAF is projected to be twice as expensive.” These high costs make SAF commercially unviable without policy support or technological advances. Direct air capture and storage could be a cheaper alternative to fuel switching, it is reckoned.
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