Vietnam is proposing changes to its national energy planning as it targets double-digit economic growth during the 2026–2030 period. The higher growth ambition is expected to push up energy demand, making revisions to the country’s long-term energy strategy necessary to ensure reliable supply for the economy.
The Ministry of Industry and Trade said the country has raised its economic growth target for 2026–30, which has changed earlier energy demand forecasts. As a result, the national energy master plan for 2021–2030, with a vision to 2050, is being updated to reflect new economic conditions, planning adjustments and fast-moving technological developments.
Several policy and planning changes are influencing the revised energy plan. These include national marine spatial planning, updates to the national master plan, adjustments to the Power Development Plan VIII, and changes to administrative boundaries following provincial mergers. Together, these factors affect both the scale of energy development and where energy infrastructure will be located across the country.
The ministry also pointed to rapid advances in science, technology and digital transformation as key drivers of change. These developments align with the Politburo’s Resolution 57 issued in December 2024, which sets out priorities for innovation, digital transformation and the development of modern energy infrastructure. The resolution highlights the need to expand clean and new energy while maintaining energy security for strategic industries.
Under the draft plan, which has been released for public feedback, national energy security remains a top priority. Energy supply is expected to meet demand to support an average GDP growth rate of at least 10 per cent during 2026–30. Total final energy demand is projected to reach around 120–130 million tonnes of oil equivalent by 2030 and rise further to 175–200 million tonnes by 2050.
To strengthen energy security, petroleum reserves, including crude oil and refined products, are proposed to increase to the equivalent of about 90 days of net imports by 2030. The plan also outlines domestic production targets, with crude oil output estimated at 5.8–8 million tonnes per year during 2026–30, while natural gas production is expected to reach 5.4–11 billion cubic metres annually.
Renewable energy plays a central role in the draft plan. Renewables are expected to account for 25–30 per cent of total primary energy supply by 2030 and rise sharply to 70–80 per cent by 2050. Energy savings are also targeted at 8–10 per cent of total final consumption by 2030 compared with a business-as-usual scenario.
Greenhouse gas emissions are projected to fall by 15–35 per cent by 2030 compared with the baseline. Emissions from the energy sector are estimated at 433–474 million tonnes of CO2 equivalent in 2030, falling to around 101 million tonnes by 2050.
The ministry also plans to expand liquefied natural gas import capacity to support gas-fired power plants and develop LNG-based energy hubs. At the same time, Vietnam aims to build a clean energy industry, with renewable electricity providing up to 39.2 per cent of power generation by 2030 and more than two-thirds by 2050. The draft also includes plans to export renewable electricity and develop green hydrogen production in the long term.
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