Summary
• Global oil demand seen growing by 700,000 to 1.3 mln bpd in 2025
• First upward revision in 2025 Brent price forecast since April
(Reuters) – Sluggish demand from China and oversupply worries will keep oil prices anchored below $80 a barrel this year, a Reuters poll showed on Friday, although tougher U.S. sanctions on Russian crude and geopolitical tensions could provide price support.
The survey of 41 economists and analysts predicted that Brent crude would average $74.57 per barrel in 2025, up from a forecast of $74.33 in December, marking a first upward revision in outlook since last April’s poll.
Brent, the global benchmark, fell by more than 3% in 2024 due to economic challenges in China, and a surge in oil production by the U.S. and non-OPEC nations.
U.S. crude is projected to average $70.40 per barrel in 2025 versus $70.86 seen in last month’s poll.
“Two key factors that will drive oil prices this year will be ongoing geopolitical risk, which will keep a floor under prices of about $70, while soft demand growth in China will put downward pressure on prices,” said Matthew Sherwood, lead commodities analyst at EIU.
Most poll respondents believe that the latest U.S. sanctions on Russian oil could disrupt exports and cause short-term market balance changes as well as temporary price hikes
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However, analysts noted that the market is still likely to remain in surplus this year due to factors such as OPEC+ production increases and U.S. oilfield growth, which will weigh on prices.
“The impact of the U.S. sanctions on Russian oil will be noticeable but not overwhelming. The sanctions are likely to affect Russia more significantly than global oil prices,” Zain Vawda, market analyst at MarketPulse by OANDA.
U.S. President Donald Trump last week reiterated his call for OPEC to cut oil prices to hurt oil-rich Russia’s finances and help bring an end to the war in Ukraine.
Markets now look forward to a ministerial meeting by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, together called OPEC+, scheduled for Feb. 3.
Meanwhile, global oil demand is seen growing by between 700,000 and 1.3 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2025, the poll showed.
Trump’s return to office could result in stricter sanctions on Iranian and Venezuelan oil, however that will give space to OPEC+ to increase production, potentially boosting overall oil supply, analysts noted.
“Given the Trump campaign’s stated focus on lowering energy prices there could be a scenario with a three-way deal between the U.S., China and OPEC+,” said Kim Fustier, head of European oil & gas research at HSBC.
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