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- Forecast shows US shale oil boom fading after 20 years
- US oil output to peak at 14 million bpd in 2027, EIA says
- Production to fall rapidly from 2030 through 2050
- US oil demand to cap post-pandemic gains next year
- US oil demand will not surpass 2019 levels or 2005 record
NEW YORK, April 15 (Reuters) – U.S. oil production will peak at 14 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2027 and maintain that level through the end of the decade, before rapidly declining, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said on Tuesday.
Oil output from the world’s largest producer will fall to about 11.3 million bpd in 2050, from around 13.7 million bpd this year, the statistical arm of the U.S. Department of Energy said in its Annual Energy Outlook.
The forecasts show that the nearly two-decades old U.S. shale boom is drawing closer to its end, challenging U.S. President Donald Trump’s vision of unleashing higher domestic oil supply.
Trump’s sweeping tariffs against U.S. trading partners are also discouraging shale drillers, who face higher costs on steel and equipment, Paris-based International Energy Agency said on Tuesday, as the advisor to industrialized nations slashed its global oil demand and U.S. oil output forecasts for 2025.
U.S. shale oil production will peak at 10 million bpd in 2027, up from about 9.69 million bpd this year, the EIA said. It will then decline to about 9.33 million bpd by 2050, the agency said.
Meanwhile, the post-pandemic recovery in U.S. oil demand will end next year, forecasts showed. Total product supplied, the EIA’s measure of demand, will edge up from 20.51 million bpd this year to 20.52 million bpd next year, EIA data showed.
Before the COVID-19 pandemic, in 2019, U.S. oil consumption averaged 20.54 million bpd. The all-time record high was in 2005 at 20.80 million bpd.
The EIA last week lowered its global oil demand growth forecasts for this year and next, citing potentially weaker economic activity due to an intensifying U.S. trade war with China.
The agency also sharply cut its oil price forecasts and reduced its outlook for U.S. oil production growth for 2025 and 2026 as a result of the demand uncertainty.
It now expects Brent crude, which serves as the international benchmark, to average $67.87 a barrel this year, down from its earlier forecast of $74.22.
U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate crude oil (WTI) will average $63.88 a barrel in 2025, EIA said last week, nearly $7 below its prior forecast.
Brent futures , were trading slightly below $65 a barrel on Tuesday, down about 13% so far this year. WTI futures were trading around $61.25, down about 14% so far this year.
Reporting by Shariq Khan, Stephanie Kelly and Scott DiSavino in New York; Editing by Marguerita Choy
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