Analysis: Why China’s hydrogen shakedown looks different to Europe’s

The Western hydrogen sector underwent a painful course correction between 2023 and 2025.

Developers delayed projects, technology players went bust, and investors shifted to projects firmly grounded with bankable business models. Companies found themselves confronting a market that had promised rapid scale-up but failed to deliver enough final investment decisions (FIDs).

Now there are signs China may be entering its own distinct version of a reset.

At first glance, that seems unlikely. The country remains the undisputed centre of gravity for the global hydrogen industry. It is on track to meet its 2030 target of producing 300,000 tonnes of green hydrogen per year in 2027, while accounting for roughly three-quarters of the world’s 2GW of newly installed electrolyser capacity in 2025.