The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) raised its U.S. crude oil production forecast for 2025 and 2026 in its latest short term energy outlook (STEO), which was released on February 11.
According to that STEO, the EIA sees U.S. crude oil production, including lease condensate, averaging 13.59 million barrels per day this year and 13.73 million barrels per day next year. In its previous STEO, which was released in January, the EIA projected that U.S. crude oil output would average 13.55 million barrels per day in 2025 and 13.62 million barrels per day in 2026.
In its latest STEO, the EIA forecast that U.S. crude oil production will come in at 13.40 million barrels per day in the first quarter of 2025, 13.57 million barrels per day in the second quarter, 13.65 million barrels per day in the third quarter, 13.74 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter, 13.77 million barrels per day in the first quarter of 2026, 13.82 million barrels per day in the second quarter, 13.68 million barrels per day in the third quarter, and 13.63 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter of next year.
In its previous STEO, the EIA saw U.S. crude oil production averaging 13.41 million barrels per day in the first quarter of this year, 13.54 million barrels per day in the second quarter, 13.56 million barrels per day in the third quarter, 13.67 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter, 13.63 million barrels per day in the first quarter of next year, 13.67 million barrels per day in the second quarter, 13.61 million barrels per day in the third quarter, and 13.59 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter of 2026.
Both STEOs highlight that U.S. crude oil production averaged 13.21 million barrels per day in 2024. A data page on the EIA website showing annual U.S. field production of crude oil, which was last updated on January 31, 2025, and which includes data from 1859 to 2023, showed that annual U.S. field production of crude oil never averaged 13 million barrels per day or more during this period. The closest it came to an annual average of 13 million barrels per day was in 2023, at 12.935 million barrels per day, the data revealed.
A data page on the EIA website showing monthly U.S. field production of crude oil, which was also last updated on January 31, 2025, and which includes from January 1920 to November 2024, showed that monthly U.S. field production of crude oil has averaged 13 million barrels per day or more on 15 occasions. Five of those were in 2023 and 10 were in 2024, according to the data page, which revealed that the highest monthly U.S. field production of crude oil figure was seen in October 2024, at 13.436 million barrels per day.
Global Crude Oil Production
In its latest STEO, the EIA projected that total crude oil production will average 77.44 million barrels per day in 2025 and 78.39 million barrels per day in 2026.
The EIA’s February STEO sees total crude oil production coming in at 76.81 million barrels per day in the first quarter of this year, 76.99 million barrels per day in the second quarter, 77.69 million barrels per day in the third quarter, 78.25 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter, 78.38 million barrels per day in the first quarter of next year, 78.19 million barrels per day in the second quarter, 78.30 million barrels per day in the third quarter, and 78.70 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter of 2026.
In its January STEO, the EIA forecast that total crude oil production would average 76.80 million barrels per day in the first quarter of 2025, 76.92 million barrels per day in the second quarter, 77.59 million barrels per day in the third quarter, 78.19 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter, 78.26 million barrels per day in the first quarter of next year, 78.08 million barrels per day in the second quarter, 78.29 million barrels per day in the third quarter, and 78.72 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter of next year.
The EIAs February STEO highlighted that total crude oil output came in at 76.29 million barrels per day in 2024. The organization’s January STEO highlighted that this production averaged 76.28 million barrels per day last year.
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