As such, MbS and Trump’s interests may align. Imagine the U.S. tries to shrink the $53 billion of annual oil revenues Iran made in 2023 via tougher sanctions. If effective, that could see 1.7 million barrels of Iranian oil exports a day disappear from the market, which could send prices spiking even if the IEA’s anticipated surplus materialises. Hence Saudi could then deploy its surplus with impunity. While oil prices would fall, the kingdom’s market share could soar.
Such a scenario would allow both MbS and Trump to win in 2025. But both could grease the wheels. Saudi could invest in U.S. sports bets like tennis via the PIF’s SURJ Sports Investment company. Trump could champion major chunks of foreign direct investment by U.S. capital providers in the kingdom to juice its Vision 2030 diversification agenda, particularly in the field of artificial intelligence. If so, Saudi might end the year more firmly in the U.S. camp.
Donald Trump’s new administration will revive its “maximum pressure” policy to “bankrupt” Iran’s ability to fund regional proxies and develop nuclear weapons, the Financial Times reported on Nov. 16 citing people familiar with the transition.
Trump’s transition team is drawing up executive orders that he could issue on his first day in the Oval Office to target Tehran, including to tighten and add new sanctions on Iranian oil exports, the report said, citing people familiar with the plans.
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