(Update) May 6, 2026, 10:36 AM GMT+1: Article updated with X statement from Shehbaz Sharif, Prime Minister of the Islamic Republic of Pakistan.
In a statement posted on his Truth Social page late Tuesday, U.S. President Donald Trump announced that Project Freedom “will be paused for a short period”.
“Based on the request of Pakistan and other Countries, the tremendous Military Success that we have had during the Campaign against the Country of Iran and, additionally, the fact that Great Progress has been made toward a Complete and Final Agreement with Representatives of Iran, we have mutually agreed that, while the Blockade will remain in full force and effect, Project Freedom (The Movement of Ships through the Strait of Hormuz) will be paused for a short period of time to see whether or not the Agreement can be finalized and signed,” the statement noted.
In a release posted on its website on May 3, U.S. Central Command (Centcom) announced that the U.S. military was supporting the launch of Project Freedom in the Strait of Hormuz.
“U.S. Central Command forces will begin supporting Project Freedom, May 4, to restore freedom of navigation for commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz,” that release stated.
“The mission, directed by the President, will support merchant vessels seeking to freely transit through the essential international trade corridor,” it added, noting that “a quarter of the world’s oil trade at sea and significant volumes of fuel and fertilizer products are transported through the strait”.
The release highlighted that U.S. military support to Project Freedom would include guided-missile destroyers, over 100 land and sea-based aircraft, multi-domain unmanned platforms, and 15,000 service members.
Centcom Commander Brad Cooper said in the release, “our support for this defensive mission is essential to regional security and the global economy as we also maintain the naval blockade”.
In a statement posted on his X page late Monday, Seyed Abbas Araghchi, the Foreign Minister of the Islamic Republic of Iran, said, “events in Hormuz make clear that there’s no military solution to a political crisis”.
“As talks are making progress with Pakistan’s gracious effort, the U.S. should be wary of being dragged back into quagmire by ill-wishers,” he added.
In that post, Araghchi also described Project Freedom as “Project Deadlock”.
In a statement posted on his X page on Wednesday, Shehbaz Sharif, Prime Minister of the Islamic Republic of Pakistan, said, “I am grateful to President Donald Trump for his courageous leadership and timely announcement regarding the pause in Project Freedom in the Strait of Hormuz”.
“President Trump’s gracious response to the request made by Pakistan and other brotherly countries, particularly the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and my dear brother Crown Prince and Prime Minister of Saudi Arabia H.R.H Prince Mohammed bin Salman, will go a long way towards advancing regional peace, stability and reconciliation during this sensitive period,” he added.
“Pakistan remains firmly committed to supporting all efforts that promote restraint and a peaceful resolution of conflicts through dialogue and diplomacy. We are very hopeful that the current momentum will lead to a lasting agreement that secures durable peace and stability for the region and beyond,” he continued.
Standard Chartered Bank Energy Research Head Emily Ashford warned, in a report sent to Rigzone by the Standard Chartered team late Tuesday, that “the fragile ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran appear[ed]… to be fracturing”.
“Key developments over the past week include the launch of ‘Project Freedom’, a U.S. naval operation designed to bypass Iranian-controlled shipping lanes and provide escorts to commercial vessels looking to transit the Strait of Hormuz, indicating a willingness to alleviate energy flow disruption militarily,” Ashford added.
“Iran has responded by repeating warnings that it will strike transit it deems unauthorized, reinforcing its blockade. There have been credible reports of Iranian drone and missile attacks on vessels and commercial shipping, with Iran claiming that it struck a U.S. warship, which was denied by Washington,” Ashford continued.
The Energy Research Head also stated in the report that there have been diplomatic signals that a de-escalation channel remains open.
“Iran has submitted a multi-point proposal, which the U.S. appears willing to review,” Ashford said.
“Third-party mediation also continues … We expect this dual-track strategy of military escalation (although at present no large-scale land or air campaign escalation) and simultaneous diplomacy to continue in the near term,” Ashford noted.
Rigzone has contacted the White House for comment on the Standard Chartered Bank report and Araghchi’s X post and Iran’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs for comment on Trump’s Truth Social post, Sharif’s X post, and the Standard Chartered report. At the time of writing, neither have responded to Rigzone.
An analysis piece sent to Rigzone by the S&P Global team yesterday, which was penned by Jim Burkhard – who heads S&P Global Energy crude oil research – and the S&P Global Energy Crude Oil Markets team, warned that oil markets were facing a “precarious double depletion”, noting that a “precipitous fall in demand and a record drawdown of crude inventories [was] occurring simultaneously”.
“Two seemingly contradictory developments occurring in tandem – a drastic fall in global crude oil demand and a record drawdown in crude oil inventories – shows that the full severity of the greatest supply disruption in history is yet to come,” the analysis stated.
“Oil demand is currently experiencing the sharpest fall ever apart from the 2020 Covid-19 experience, with total liquids demand in the second quarter of 2026 projected to be nearly five million barrels per day less than a year earlier,” the analysis added.
“S&P Global Energy now expects full-year 2026 liquids demand growth to be nearly two million barrels per day less than in 2025,” it continued.
“At the same time, April saw a record-setting decline in global crude oil inventories – estimated at nearly 200 million barrels (a daily rate of 6.6 million barrels per day). The second quarter of 2026 is expected to see the largest quarterly crude inventory drawdown in history at 5.5 million barrels per day,” it went on to state.
The analysis revealed that S&P Global Energy expects that, if Hormuz was reopened, “it would take an additional seven months at minimum to fully restore upstream production, assuming no permanent damage and supply chains operate smoothly”.
“A recovery could take longer if there is damage to ports or other transport and loading infrastructure,” it warned, adding that “the longer the strait remains closed, the more likely the supply crisis extends into late 2026 and into 2027”.
The analysis flagged two “key signposts” to watch going forward – U.S. crude stock levels and the market behavior of China, “along with other large importing markets in Europe and Asia”.
“U.S. crude stock levels do not yet show a strong pull from the global oil market to offset the loss of Middle East supply,” the analysis said.
“Larger than typical declines in crude oil and product inventories, along with rising export volumes, would be signs that physical market pressure in Asia, the Middle East and Europe is reaching the United States,” it added.
“China’s buying and trading behavior will also be a major factor. In the 12 months before the Middle East war, China imported 11 million to 13 million barrels per day of crude oil each month,” it noted.
“A projected cut of 2.5 million barrels per day in crude imports, lower refinery runs and the use of product stockpiles could restrain upward pressure on crude oil prices. A burst of buying from China would have the opposite effect,” the analysis continued.
Burkhard stated in the analysis that, “while there have been significant impacts to date, the oil market has remained somewhat cushioned from the full impact of the of the loss of 15 million barrels per day in supply”.
“That the cumulative supply loss is now approaching one billion barrels is a staggering figure that inventories cannot cover indefinitely. An inevitable market reckoning is coming,” he warned.
“Before the war, any market veteran would not have been surprised if crude oil prices soared far higher than they have based on a two-month loss of 15 million barrels per day,” he added.
“What is a tremendous curtailment of demand is still being outstripped by the loss of supply. That means that higher crude oil and refined product prices are still to come,” Burkhard went on to warn.
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