U.S. Oil Dominance Keeps Growing Despite Lower Prices

While much of the world spent 2025 debating peak oil, the United States was busy setting another production record.

New data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration showed that U.S. crude oil production, including lease condensate, averaged a record 13.6 million barrels per day last year, extending America’s run as the world’s largest crude producer.

That streak began in 2018, when the United States overtook Russia. Since then, shale has done what shale does best: annoy OPEC, defy forecasts, and keep pumping.

The 2025 figure broke the previous U.S. and global production record of 13.2 million bpd set in 2024. It also put U.S. output about 40% above production from Russia and Saudi Arabia, the next two largest crude producers.

The Permian Basin, not unsurprisingly, carried the largest load. Production from Texas and New Mexico rose 4% last year to 6.6 million bpd, which was nearly half of total U.S. crude output.

The record came despite lower prices. WTI averaged $65 per barrel in 2025, down from $77 in 2024, as global oversupply weighed on the market. U.S. operators still managed to squeeze more crude from key shale basins through higher drilling productivity and better efficiency.

That matters even more now.

The 2025 data predates this year’s U.S.-Iran war and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. But it helps explain why the U.S. oil industry entered 2026 from a position of unusual strength. The Hormuz crisis has been painful for consumers, with higher crude and gasoline prices feeding political pressure ahead of the midterm elections. For U.S. producers, though, the turmoil has not exactly been a tragedy.

The EIA now expects U.S. crude production to stay near 13.7 million bpd in 2026 before rising to 14.2 million bpd in 2027, helped by stronger prices and continued shale productivity gains.

The United States isn’t just the world’s largest oil producer. It is the largest crude producer ever.

By Julianne Geiger for Oilprice.com

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