In a statement posted on its X page on Tuesday, which was translated from Arabic, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) Ministry of Energy and Infrastructure announced that the country has made a decision to withdraw from OPEC and OPEC+, effective May 1.
“This decision aligns with the United Arab Emirates’ long-term strategic and economic vision and the evolution of its energy sector, including accelerating investment in domestic energy production, while reinforcing its commitment to its role as a responsible and reliable producer looking ahead to the future of global energy markets,” the statement noted.
“This decision comes following a thorough review of the United Arab Emirates’ production policy and its current and future capabilities, and in light of what national interests require and the state’s commitment to contributing effectively to meeting the market’s pressing needs, while geopolitical fluctuations continue in the near term through disruptions in the Arabian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz, which affect supply dynamics, as fundamental trends point to the continued growth of global energy demand in the medium and long term,” it added.
“The stability of the global energy system relies on the availability of flexible, reliable, and reasonably priced supplies, and the UAE has invested to meet demand changes efficiently and responsibly, prioritizing supply stability, cost, and sustainability,” it continued.
The statement noted that the UAE’s decision to withdraw from OPEC and OPEC+ “comes after decades of constructive cooperation, as the UAE joined OPEC in 1967 through the Emirate of Abu Dhabi, and continued its membership after the establishment of the United Arab Emirates in 1971”.
“During this period, the state played an active role in supporting the stability of the global oil market and enhancing dialogue among producing countries,” the statement highlighted.
This statement went on to note that the decision “underscores the evolution of sector policies to enhance flexibility in responding to market dynamics, while continuing to contribute to its stability in a deliberate and responsible manner with the lowest global carbon intensity, thereby supporting global growth and emissions reduction”.
“Following its withdrawal from OPEC, the UAE will continue its responsible role through a gradual and deliberate increase in production, in line with demand and market conditions,” the statement revealed.
“Thanks to its large and competitive resource base, the UAE will continue working with partners to develop resources, supporting economic growth and diversification,” it added.
“It is noteworthy that this decision does not change the United Arab Emirates’ commitment to the stability of global markets or its cooperation-based approach with producers and consumers; rather, it enhances its ability to respond to changing market requirements,” it went on to state.
Mohamed Al-Mazrouei, UAE Minister of Energy and Infrastructure, said in a statement posted on his X page that the UAE’s decision to exit from OPEC “reflects a policy-driven evolution aligned with long-term market fundamentals”.
“We thank OPEC and its member countries for decades of constructive cooperation. We remain committed to energy security, providing reliable, responsible, and lower-carbon supply while supporting stable global markets,” he added.
UAE Minister of Industry and Advanced Technology, ADNOC Managing Director and Group CEO, and XRG Executive Chairman Sultan Al Jaber said in a statement posted on his X page that the UAE had taken “a sovereign decision in line with its long-term energy strategy, its true production capability and its national interest, as well as global energy market stability”.
“At ADNOC, our focus is unchanged: meeting the growing energy needs of our customers and partners around the world with reliability, responsibility, and the ambition to deliver more … across oil, gas, chemicals, and low carbon and renewable energy,” he added.
“Our commitment to our partners remains unwavering. For us, trust, partnership and credibility are not talking points … they are a track record,” he continued.
Analyst Views
In a statement sent to Rigzone yesterday, Ole S. Hansen, Head of Commodity Strategy at Saxo Bank, noted that the UAE had decided to leave OPEC “as it pursues a strategic realignment in the wake of the Iran war”.
Hansen pointed out that this conflict “has not only severely disrupted regional energy flows”, it has also “drained global commercial and strategic crude inventories, leaving the market facing a prolonged rebuilding phase once hostilities end”.
The Saxo Bank analyst warned that several Gulf producers may struggle for some time to restore output to pre-war levels due to infrastructure damage, logistical bottlenecks, and the time required to normalize exports.
“At the same time, strong demand to rebuild depleted commercial stockpiles and replenish strategic reserves is likely to underpin crude demand well beyond the end of the conflict,” he said.
“Against that backdrop, the UAE has seized the opportunity to exit OPEC, removing the production quota straitjacket that for years frustrated the oil rich nation and limited its ability to fully utilize a steadily expanding production capacity,” he added.
Hansen highlighted in the statement that, “before tumbling last month to 2.2 million barrels per day, UAE production had gradually risen to around 3.6 million barrels per day, while its stated crude production capacity currently stands at 4.85 million barrels per day, with an official target of 5.0 million barrels per day by 2027 through continued upstream investment led by ADNOC”.
The Saxo Bank analyst noted in the statement that, in the short to medium term, the market should be able to absorb additional UAE barrels “given depleted global inventories and the need to rebuild reserves”.
Over time, however, Hansen warned that the UAE’s withdrawal “raises a broader strategic question”.
“If other producers begin prioritizing market share over quota discipline, OPEC’s ability to manage orderly markets through coordinated supply adjustments may increasingly be called into question,” he said.
In a breaking news market update sent to Rigzone on Tuesday, Rystad Energy Head of Geopolitical Analysis, Jorge Leon, said OPEC and OPEC+ “have only ever been as strong as the members’ willingness to hold barrels back from the market, and the UAE was one of those”.
“Losing a member with 4.8 million barrels per day of capacity, and the ambition to produce more, takes a real tool out of the group’s hands,” Leon warned.
Leon highlighted in the update that the timing of the UAE’s move “tells you something about where the oil market is going”.
“With demand nearing a peak, the calculation for producers with low-cost barrels is changing fast, and waiting your turn inside a quota system starts to look like leaving money on the table,” he said.
“Saudi Arabia is now left doing more of the heavy lifting on price stability, and the market loses one of the few shock absorbers it had left,” he added.
Rystad noted in the update that the UAE’s withdrawal from OPEC and OPEC+ marks a significant shift for the group.
“Alongside Saudi Arabia, it is one of the few members with meaningful spare capacity, the mechanism through which the group exerts market influence and responds to supply shocks,” Rystad said in the update.
“Its departure therefore removes one of the core pillars underpinning OPEC’s ability to manage the market,” it warned.
Rystad conceded in the update that the near-term effects of the UAE’s withdrawal “may be muted given ongoing disruption in the Strait of Hormuz and broader geopolitical uncertainty” but pointed out that the longer-term implications “are more consequential”.
“A structurally weaker OPEC, with less spare capacity concentrated within the group, will find it increasingly difficult to calibrate supply and stabilize prices,” Rystad said.
“The broader lesson from recent years is that OPEC+ has shown itself both able and willing to intervene decisively, but its effectiveness depends on the nature of the shock,” it added.
“The group is best equipped to manage temporary disruptions, where supply can be shifted across time to smooth the market. It is far less clear that this model holds in a world of structurally weakening demand,” it continued.
As oil demand approaches a peak and begins to decline, incentives shift, Rystad stated in the update, noting that producers with spare capacity may prioritize monetizing reserves and protecting market share over collective restraint.
“In that context, the logic for early movers becomes more compelling,” Rystad said.
“The UAE, with capacity of around 4.8 million barrels per day and significant room to increase output, is particularly well positioned to pursue such a strategy outside the group,” it added.
“That, in turn, raises broader questions about the sustainability of Saudi Arabia’s role as the market’s central stabilizer, especially if it is left carrying a disproportionate share of the adjustment burden,” it continued.
“The net effect points to a more fragmented supply landscape and a potentially more volatile oil market over time, as OPEC’s capacity to smooth imbalances diminishes,” Rystad warned.
In a market comment sent to Rigzone yesterday, Naeem Aslam, CIO at Zaye Capital Markets, said the UAE’s OPEC exit “isn’t cartel suicide – it’s a calculated jailbreak”.
“While the headlines fixate on ‘fractured alliances’ and ‘Saudi isolation’ amid the Hormuz meltdown, Abu Dhabi’s real play is far sharper: they’ve weaponized the crisis to ditch committee handcuffs and flood the market with their spare capacity on their own timeline,” he added.
“No more waiting for Vienna nods while their Fujairah bypass hums and global buyers scream for barrels. This isn’t defiance; it’s admitting what everyone whispers – that OPEC’s quota rituals are relics in a world of drone strikes, rerouted tankers, and AI-driven demand spikes,” he continued.
Rigzone has contacted OPEC for comment on the UAE Ministry of Energy and Infrastructure, Al-Mazrouei, and Al Jaber’s X posts. Rigzone has also contacted OPEC and the UAE’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs for comment on Hansen and Aslam’s statements and Rystad’s market update. At the time of writing, OPEC and the UAE foreign ministry have not responded to Rigzone.
OPEC Members
At the time of writing, OPEC’s member countries comprise Algeria, Congo, Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Nigeria, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Venezuela, the group’s website shows.
OPEC was founded in Baghdad, Iraq, with the signing of an agreement in September 1960 by Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and Venezuela, the site highlights, noting that these countries “were to become the Founder Members of the Organization”.
“These countries were later joined by Qatar (1961), Indonesia (1962), Libya (1962), the United Arab Emirates (1967), Algeria (1969), Nigeria (1971), Ecuador (1973), Gabon (1975), Angola (2007), Equatorial Guinea (2017) and Congo (2018),” OPEC’s site states.
Ecuador suspended its membership in December 1992, then rejoined OPEC in October 2007, then decided to withdraw its membership of OPEC, effective January 1, 2020, according to OPEC’s site, which also highlights that Indonesia suspended its membership in January 2009, reactivated it again in January 2016, but decided to suspend its membership once more at the 171st Meeting of the OPEC Conference on November 30, 2016.
Gabon terminated its membership in January 1995 then rejoined OPEC in July 2016, the site shows. Qatar terminated its membership on January 1, 2019, and Angola withdrew its membership, effective January 1, 2024, the site points out.
OPEC’s site notes that the OPEC statute “stipulates that ‘any country with a substantial net export of crude petroleum, which has fundamentally similar interests to those of Member Countries, may become a Full Member of the Organization, if accepted by a majority of three-fourths of Full Members, including the concurring votes of all Founder Members’”.
“The statute further provides for Associate Members which are those countries that do not qualify for full membership, but are nevertheless admitted under such special conditions as may be prescribed by the Conference,” it adds.
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