US Gas Slides as Bearish Weather Outlook Signals Muted Demand

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US natural gas futures dropped to the lowest in more than two weeks as forecasts for mild weather through late October indicated tepid demand for the heating fuel, with ample domestic stockpiles also weighing on the market.


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Gas flows to US LNG terminals ramped up to near record highs, however, providing some support for prices.

  • Futures for November delivery -7.2c, or -2.3%, to $3.046/mmbtu on Nymex, as of 10:22am ET
    • Intraday low slipped to $3.02, lowest for front-month since Sept. 26

Weather:

  • Above-normal temperatures seen across most of the eastern half of the US Oct. 19-23: Commodity Weather Group
    • Near-normal readings seen across East Oct. 23-28
  • See WHUT for a map of latest 6-10 day weather forecast: NOAA

Daily BNEF gas data:

  • Lower-48 dry gas production on Tuesday ~106.7 bcf/day, or +3.8% y/y
  • Lower-48 total gas demand on Tuesday ~66.4 bcf/day, or -7.8% y/y
  • Dry gas exports to Mexico on Tuesday ~6.8 bcf/day, or -3.7% w/w
  • Estimated gas flows to LNG export terminals on Tuesday ~16.2 bcf/day, or +7.7% w/w
    • Cove Point returned to normal operations after a three-week long maintenance

Gas Market News:

  • Europe Gas Steadies as Imports Temper Near-Term Supply Concerns
  • LNG WRAP: Lower Chinese Imports May Bring Relief to Other Buyers
  • Japan, South Korea LNG Imports Diverge in October: BNEF Chart
  • LNG Vessel Diverts Away From Fos Terminal Shut Again on Strike
  • Top LNG Producers Confident Markets Will Absorb Supply Surge
  • Expand Energy Reduces Net-Debt Target to $4 Billion by Year-End

This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.

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