TotalEnergies expects higher cash flows from its oil production and strong refining margins and oil trading results to boost second-quarter profits compared to the prior quarter, as oil prices rose and fuel markets tightened in the wake of the Iran war.
“Downstream results and cash flow are expected to increase sharply compared to the first quarter of 2026, supported by higher refining and petrochemical margins, as well as oil trading results, which are expected to remain at the same strong level as in the first quarter,” the French supermajor said in an earnings preview on Thursday.
TotalEnergies is set to report full quarterly earnings on July 23.
In the note advising investors what to expect from the results, the company today lowered its assessment of the impact of the Middle East conflict for the second quarter to around 210,000 boe/d, below the 360,000 boe/d guidance communicated last quarter.
“This is notably driven by the ramp-up of the Company’s production in offshore United Arab Emirates over the course of the quarter and the restart of production in the other countries in the region during June,” the supermajor said.
But it also noted that “a significant portion of this production could not be lifted during the quarter and is recognized in Exploration & Production results based on the crude price from end-June (less than $70/b).”
Cash flows in the Exploration & Production division is expected to be about $1 billion higher compared to the first quarter. Exploration & Production results are expected to increase but will be affected by the accounting effects related to production that was not lifted, TotalEnergies said.
But the supermajor’s cash flow and results in the Integrated LNG division are expected to decrease significantly, “affected by an underperformance in gas trading activities amid a broadly flat to declining European market, after outperforming in the first quarter.”
In guiding for stronger refining and oil trading for the second quarter, TotalEnergies joins Shell and BP, both of which earlier this month signaled strong results in these divisions.
By Charles Kennedy for Oilprice.com
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